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India is at the threshold of much higher growth and
prosperity. Do we recognise this?.....
....That’s when India can claim to be a major player in the world. It is
there to be got — provided our leaders, industrialists, workers and
intelligentsia recognise this. Are we going to get there? Or will we continue
to find excuses for non-performance? That’s something we as a people need to
focus on.
Treat this article as you will — either as a
sober tract on future growth possibilities, or the ranting of a proselytiser
of reforms. But first, some very recent history. In the last fortnight, I had
three ‘revelations’. The first was a conference where CK Prahalad spoke on
manufacturing. Prahalad is one of the most logically persuasive speakers of
our times. In the course of an hour’s presentation followed by an hour and a
half’s debate, I was convinced of his message: Today, India has everything to
aspire for double digit growth. The second was examining a large set of
global data. The third was a close look at our demographic data. Taken
together, I’m convinced that the economic history of India is at a point of
inflexion — at a stage where we have all the ingredients in place to trigger
an era of explosive growth. In the nuclear physics analogy used by finance
minister Jaswant Singh, “India’s economy is approaching criticality.”
For the time being, let’s forget about the 7 per cent plus growth for 2003-04
that is now being forecast by many organisations — the CII being one such.
Much of that is due to the 7.5 per cent estimated growth in the agricultural
sector, which alone ought to contribute 1.8 percentage points to growth.
Consider instead the industrial and services sectors. The former constitutes
26 per cent of GDP and will clock 6.3-6.5 per cent growth in 2003-04; and the
latter, which accounts for half our GDP, will post 7.5 per cent. In other
words, these two sectors will contribute to 5.4-5.5 per cent growth of GDP.
In 5 of the last 10 years, the industrial sector has grown faster than 6.5
per cent; and in six of these, services has grown at 7.5 per cent or above.
So, having been there, and done that, there is no reason to believe that
these growth rates are not replicable in the future. Which major OECD country
can claim to have even 5.4 per cent GDP growth? The answer: None.
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Better option than oil and gas
pipelines
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=45898
By: OMKAR GOSWAMI, November 11, 2003
(The author is the Chief Economist of CII. These views are personal) |
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