By: Dr.Dipak Basu
December 19, 2006
expressed here are author’s own and not of this website. Full disclaimer
is at the bottom.
(The author is a Professor in International Economics in Nagasaki
Nuclear issue: Indian media is silent about it
End of The Indo-US Nuke Deal?
What If India-US Nuclear Deal Fails
USA"s nuclear design on India
Discord on Indo–US Nuclear Deal
Indo-US nuclear Deal and its consequences
N-Deal: Plan B if the Deal Fails
US Legislative Process: Indo-US N-Deal
N-deal: Economic, Political and
Indo-American Nuclear Pact - Rationales
India"s Nuclear Surrender to USA
P-6 and The Nuclear Truth Narayanan
India's Options to Pakistan's Nuclear Threat
Cost Pakistan Incurred to Build the Nuclear Bomb
Nuclear Black Market in Pakistan
Has America Gained Control of Their Nuclear Weapons?
In the euphoria of the recent U.S senate approval of the Indo-US
nuclear deal, Indian establishment completely forgot the future effects of
that deal. The Indo-American treaty on nuclear issue is being imposed upon
India against the public opinion, without any voting in the parliament or
any referendum of the people. Now the government of India is trying to
erase out India’s nuclear deterrent against Pakistan as well by saying
that without this Indo-US nuclear deal, there will be no future
development of the nuclear energy in India.
The nuclear deal it has little to do with the nuclear power generations
but it aims at the elimination of India’s ability to produce any nuclear
weapons. Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), which India has refused
to sign so far, is about to be imposed upon India through a back door with
devastating consequences for India’s immediate future.
Already the US senate has imposed a new clause that in future national
security organizations of USA, which means CIA and FBI, would now
collaborate with India regarding nuclear non-proliferation. This in effect
would imply that US organizations would make sure India will not be able
to gain any advantage to use its nuclear facilities to create nuclear
Dr Homi Sethna, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and one of
the founding-father of India’s nuclear program, said that what Dr
Manmohan Singh was about to sign was worse than joining the NPT regime. Dr
A. Gopalakrishnan, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board,
has outlined how precisely commitments made by Dr Singh to Parliament and
the people have been blatantly undermined and notes that if the deal goes
through in its present form, it will "compromise the sovereignty of this
country for decades to come". He has exposed the very enormous financial
price that India will have to pay as well, between Rs 300,000 to Rs
400,000 corers in nuclear reactors that will be totally dependent for
their existence on a yearly audit of our policies by the US Congress. Dr
P.K. Iyengar, another former chairman of the AEC, has called the deal
"giving up sovereignty". These men have spent their lives translating an
Indian vision of a self-reliant industrialization, crafted by Jawaharlal
Nehru and Indira Gandhi, into reality. They do not have a political or
personal agenda. However, after a recent meeting with the Prime Minister
they have eaten their words. The counterparts of these retired scientific
administrators in India’s nuclear establishment who are currently employed
are silent about the issue.
Pakistan and China have finalized in August 2006 landmark accord on
nuclear energy cooperation, under which Islamabad will acquire 6 Chinese
nuclear reactors. The nuclear energy cooperation deal with China has
brought great solace to Pakistan, as the United States is not willing to
extend such cooperation to Pakistan. With Chinese cooperation, Pak would
build six new nuclear reactors in next 10 years having capacity of 2,000
megawatts. This was part of Pakistan’s plan to increase the capacity of
N-power generation to over 8,000 megawatts by 2025. China has already
helped Pak build a nuclear reactor of 350 megawatts at Chashma and it was
currently building one more at the same place with the same capacity.
China has already supplied Pakistan enrichment plants and heavy water
plants, and nuclear weapons as well. Chinese nuclear plants offered to
Pakistan will not be under the control of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA). Thus, Pakistan can very well use these to produce nuclear
weapons. Although China is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
of 45 nations and a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),
China like in all other international spheres does not care about its
obligation to any international treaty if its national interest demands
so. China’s national interest is to set up Pakistan against India by
providing every weapons and missiles it has got.
China has so far violated every rule of the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty) and NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) by supplying nuclear power
plants with enrichment facility, which can produce nuclear weapons to
Pakistan, North Korea and possibly Iran. For that USA will never dare to
impose any sanction against China.
Does India need US nuclear power plants?
It is not true that without the American support India’s nuclear energy
program would come to a halt. As Pakistan is getting everything
regarding nuclear energy from China, India can also get nuclear power
plants from Russia.
The real issue is whether India needs any US assistance at all regarding
its nuclear energy sector. The argument of Man Mohan Singh, as he said in
the Parliament recently, that otherwise India would be a nuclear ‘Pariah’
is false. In 1974, USA has imposed sanctions so that India cannot get any
nuclear related materials or technology. After 1998 USA has imposed more
sanctions on India so that it cannot get any defense related technology or
materials at all. However, India since 1974 has received every nuclear
technology, and materials including conventional nuclear power plants,
Fast Breeder reactors, reprocessing and enrichment plants and heavy water
plants from the Soviet Union and Russia without any restrictions attached
to these. As a result, India is al most self-sufficient regarding nuclear
technology and can produce nuclear weapons despite all the efforts of the
United States to stop it.
Only for the last two years, because of its membership of the NSG, Russia
now wants to supply nuclear power plants with added safeguards that the
plants cannot be used to produce any nuclear weapons. However, at the same
time, it has offered offshore nuclear plants to India, which would be
without any restrictions. India can have both or either of the on-shore or
offshore nuclear power plants from Russia and as a result for the future
development of electricity production, India does not need US support at
all. Thus, it really does not matter if India would refuse to sign the
Indo-US treaty on nuclear energy.
CPI (M) is opposing the treaty by saying India does not need nuclear power
plants. That is a non-issue here. Even if India needs nuclear power plants
to supplement it energy requirement in future, India does not need nuclear
power plants from USA. Russia can still supply whatever India needs at a
much lower price.
India’s nuclear weapons:
The treaty has little to do with nuclear energy development in India but
deals with the question of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and how to
prevent India from becoming a nuclear weapon state. It is very clear that
the treaty does not treat India as a present or future nuclear weapon
state. The treaty will never legitimize India’s nuclear weapons, but will
ruin any prospect of India to have any independent nuclear deterrent
against even Pakistan; China is far cry.
When India will sign the Indo-US treaty, Pakistan without any treaty with
the US will receive whatever it wants from China and will go on producing
nuclear weapons but India cannot. The reason is that the treaty will force
India to separate Indian’s nuclear facilities including the research
institutes into two groups, military and non-military. About 90 percent of
all nuclear facilities, including the Russian built Fast Breeder Reactors
which can produce plutonium for nuclear weapons, will be included in the
civilian sector and there will be regular inspection by the IAEA and the
US authority to make sure that these facilities will not be used to
produce nuclear weapons.
If India, in this situation, wants to keep its option for nuclear weapons,
it needs to reconstruct every facility once again at a prohibitive cost.
India for the military part of the nuclear sector will not be able to
import technology or materials from any of the countries of the NSG,
including Russia. Thus, India’s nuclear weapons program will disappear.
This is the real aim of the Indo-US treaty. Man Mohan Singh’s recent
declaration in the Indian parliament that India would maintain the option
to test nuclear weapons is very theoretical. In practice, India will be
unable to do that because of lack of availability of appropriate facility
to develop and test nuclear weapons in near future.
The prospect for India in this situation is very bleak but the government
of India itself is creating it. In the case of nuclear deal with the US
also, India just like in 1991 and 1995 is accepting a subordinate position
in relation to USA and the Western countries. USA will never accept any
inspection of its nuclear facility by the IAEA. It will carry on
developing new nuclear weapons and will test those in laboratory
conditions. It has no separation of nuclear facilities into military and
civilian sectors. However, India is accepting inspection of its nuclear
facility by the American authority without demanding any corresponding
right of inspection of the American nuclear facilities by the Indian
authority. Just like other two treaties, with IMF in 1991 and with WTO in
1995, this Indo-US deal on nuclear energy is unequal, discriminatory and
The result will make Pakistan much stronger than India in very near
future. That serves the geo-political interest of the United States with
Pakistan as the bridge to the Islamic world as Pakistan was the bridge to
China in 1971, when both USA and China were about to attack India jointly
to save East Pakistan. The unfolding scenario will ruin India in the
process when India will be forced to surrender also to the demands of
Pakistan, a NATO ally of USA and China, the most important business
partner of the U.S corporations and on whom the fate of the US Dollar
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