| Sectarian and Tribal Warfare: Political Map of Islamic Nations | |||
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By: Kishan Bhatia October 01, 2006 Views expressed here are author’s own and not of this website. Full disclaimer is at the bottom. 
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Although political boundaries of Islamic nations have constantly changed from 7th to 18th century as a result of violent tribal and sectarian warfare driven by the imperial ambitions of Muslim rulers, since mid 19th century, the political map or the boundaries of many Islamic nations have been dictated by European nations. The sectarian rivalries in the region from Ankara to Tehran became dormant with the demise of Turkish Ottoman Empire in 1922 and occupation of much of the Middle East by European colonial powers. British had completed subjugation of South Asia in 1857 and by instituting the Durand line incorporated parts of Baluchistan and Afghanistan into British India in 1893 the tribal warfare among Baluch, Pashtuns and Punjabis were inhibited by the British administrators of the area. The domination of the region from Ankara to Islamabad allowed Britain and France to arbitrarily redraw borders of Middle Eastern and South Asian nations to serve the European self-interest. After creation of Pakistan in 1947, the International Border between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan continued to exist with the British Agreement of 1893. A political map of the region from Ankara to Islamabad appeared in a recently published article by Ralph Peters, http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/06/1833899. The borders in the Middle East suited political necessities of the imperial European powers – for example, uninterrupted and secured supply of energy from Middle East to the Western Europe and America - and it favored political domination by Sunni over Shia of Muslim nations from Ankara to Tehran. Ignoring the Shia-Sunni rivalry Iraq - an unnatural state - was formed by splitting Kurdish tribal into three nations – Turkey, Iraq and Iran and combining it with other parts of Mesopotamia. Other unnatural states similarly created by the Europeans were Syria, Lebanon and Pakistan. By ignoring the Sunni-Shia and tribal rivalries of the Muslim culture potentially instable states were created in the region from Ankara to Islamabad. The tribal warfare was triggered in Afghanistan during 1990s to fill the political void created in 1989 due to withdrawal of Soviet forces under pressure from Afghan mujahideen actively supported by America, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. America withdrew support ignoring consequences of the tribal warfare for political control of Afghanistan. Pakistan unleashed Taliban into Afghanistan to eliminate Afghani tribal warfare and establish its hegemony in the region. Ambitious Pakistani generals had not planned for turmoil in Afghanistan. The Taliban became dominated by a non-state Islamic militant organization, al Qaeda whose leadership and operatives were allowed refuge in Afghanistan by Pakistan. Failure to control political turmoil in Afghanistan allowed Taliban to establish a radical Islamic state that enabled al Qaeda to sponsor an international jihad movement using radicalized, fundamentalist religious extremists trained in camps spread across Afghanistan and Pakistan. The al Qaeda sponsored terrorism reached a peak in 2001 with attacks on America killing nearly 3,000 civilians and trillions of dollars in economic losses. The attitude of America and the West towards Afghanistan and Pakistan dramatically changed after the Sunni terrorists put holes in the New York’s skyline (2001). The attitude hardened with subsequent terrorist bombings of trains in Madrid (2004), London (2005) and Mumbai, India (2006). America declared War on Terrorism (2001) and occupied Afghanistan (2002) and Iraq (2003). The resulting political vacuum was filled with democratically elected governments in the two nations. If on-going American and NATO engagements from Ankara to Islamabad to bring democracy in the heartland of Muslim nations should fail then the borders of many Muslim nations may change again as a result of internal sectarian and tribal warfare in the Muslim nations. The article by Ralph Peters also shows another map with likely changes to national boundaries of Muslim nations from Ankara to Islamabad by eliminating the unnatural states of the region. Among the major changes Mr. Peters favors are creation of Kurdistan at the expense of Iraq Turkey and Iran. It extends Afghanistan borders to Indus River by eliminating the Duran line to shrink Pakistan and creates an independent Baluchistan by combining areas of Baluchistan currently split between Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iraq may suffer major contractions of borders if the map advanced by Mr. Peters is to become a reality. In this essay I examine potential threats for survival of Muslim nations in their present form. One threat comes from international warfare - the potential clash of civilization precipitated by real and imaginary Islam fascism. However, before the international conditions mature for the clash of civilization as a consequence of the two world theory, the region from Ankara to Islamabad is more likely to plunge into the sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni dominated Middle East states and tribal warfare in South Asia. America and NATO are using international violence to heighten potential for inter-state wars among Muslim nations. The potential for the sectarian and tribal warfare from Ankara to Islamabad was boosted by the President Bush’s response to topple al Qaeda dominated Sunni Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam’s Sunni government in Iraq. The Bush actions were to shake up Sunni Muslim nations responsible for global wave of terrorism. It heightened sectarian tensions in Middle East and tribal conflicts in Pakistan. The fall of Saddam allowed the Shia majority of Iraq to come to power in democratically contested elections, which led to surfacing of a Shia crescent from Beirut to Tehran. A unified Shia region has alarmed Sunni powers of the Middle East as was evident during initial phases of the 33-day Hezbollah-Israel war in July-August 2006. The Shia crescent is a challenge for the old Sunni establishment nations of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Each of these states is a client state of America. Ignoring national boundaries of the Muslim nations, one sees the entire region from Ankara to Islamabad populated by clusters of Shias and Sunni communities. The development has produced two significant consequences. First, judging from absence of new attacks on America for last five years the strategy of allowing for heightened the Shia-Sunni sectarian and tribal violence in the region, in part, has averted potential terrorist attacks on America. Second, as the Shia-Sunni sectarian violence gains intensity in Iraq and tribal war in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas, the continued internal conflicts in the Muslim region have created a possibility for unraveling of the state system that for a century was the European solution in the demise of the Ottoman Empire. The establishment of a democratically elected government in Afghanistan has aggravated tribal tensions in Pakistan. The resurgence of Taliban in Pakistan has added instability in Afghanistan. Pakistani army suffered major losses in tribal FATA land and NWF province after it agreed to be a part of the War on Terrorism. Unable to control occupation of Waziristan by Taliban ideology dominated tribal President Musharraf has made peace with tribal by agreeing to the terms of Taliban and allowing for the protection of al Qaeda operatives in Waziristan. The initiative undermines Pakistan’s engagement in the War on Terrorism by signaling that Pakistan may not continue to be led by America. American media reactions to Pakistan agreeing to make peace with Taliban in Waziristan were predictable; for example, summarized below is a report in WSJ: "Under a ceasefire agreement between tribal chiefs and the army a three-year army campaign against Islamic militants in Waziristan ended alone with granting of amnesty and release of hundreds of militants prisoners, including some with known links to al Qaeda. Troops have withdrawn from army outposts and returned to the nearby army camps. These are not encouraging sign for NATO forces defending Afghanistan facing attacks from resurgent Taliban moving from Waziristan to Afghanistan. The murder of the Sardar, Nawab Akbar Bugti by Pakistani army has unsettled Baluchistan. The army’s inability to expel the militants from Waziristan is connected with the growing conflict in Baluchistan. The Taliban agreement may have reduced Pakistan to a less than full member of international team to fight War on Terrorism. NATO forces in southern Afghanistan are now facing unexpectedly fierce resistance from a resurgent Taliban and the NATO commander is now requesting additional troops to battle the insurgents. The ceasefire potentially can strain Pakistan ties to the U.S." For justification of the Baluchistan and Waziristan actions, President Musharraf may have calculated that Americans were covertly undermining Pakistan by fueling insurgency in Baluchistan, which has significant, rich mineral and natural sources, including energy supplies. With Chinese help Pakistan has been developing Gwadar port in Baluchistan to allow Chinese navy a presence in the Indian Ocean. Pakistan is also working on building an energy pipeline from Iran to India through Baluchistan. The interests of America and the West would be compromised if the China, Iran and Pakistan were to work together in the region. Musharraf calculated that by exploiting tribal rivalries of the region Americans may be engaged in countering growing China, Iran and Pakistan hegemony of the region. Two strategic concerns are potential for creation of a united independent Baluchistan under American influence and Afghanistan gaining military strength so that it can extend its borders to the Indus River. Such a political development would not only cut Pakistan in size by more than 50% but it will also dampen Chinese influence in the area and allow America to keep pressure on Iran. Muslim intellectuals appear not to have realized that the heightened potential for sectarian conflict and tribal warfare in the region is a consequence of President Bush’s actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Islamofascism may invoke Islamophobia or as the events have unfolded, it forces nations facing potential wrath of Muslim fundamentalism to take international actions to divert Muslim attention to internal problems associated with Shia-Sunni and tribal rivalries. Muslim intellectuals and the ruling elites of Muslim nations have failed to understand that exploitation of jihadi religious extremism and Islamofascists rhetoric is counter productive in a sense that nations threatened by jihadi extremism can and do use international violence to instigate sectarian violence to destabilize Muslim nations. Culturally and socially Muslims of Middle East and South Asia belong to Arab, Persian or South Asian heritage. Middle Eastern Sunnis are primarily of Arab origin and Shias are mostly of Persian origin. Contrary to what some politically motivated politicians and elites have claimed, Pakistanis are primarily of South Asian origin, not Arabs or Persians and Afghanis have Arab and Persian heritage. Pakistan"s 166 million Muslims have Sunni majority (about 70%) and balance is mostly Shia. The tribal population of Pakistanis (about 20%) is in strategically important Baluchistan dominated by Sardars of Bugti, Mengal and Marri tribes; FATA area and NWF province are domains of Afghani Pashtuns. The Middle East population is about 55% Sunni (spread across Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Syria) and balance Shia (spread across Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and other Muslim nations). Among all these nations Pakistan is the poorest, both economically and in energy resources. It has been most aggressive in seeking American patronage to become Sunni dominated nation as a regional power. Among Shia dominated nations Iran is flush with oil revenues and it is aggressively confronting America for regional domination. Unlike Musharraf’s calculations, Pakistani elites have not yet realize that America and NATO forces have already set the region up for heightened tribal warfare. Pakistanis who propagate a perception of the two world theory in which the Islamic Um’mah (world) is in ideological opposition to the liberal non-Islamic secular world - globalize, interdependent world of political and economic liberalism are clueless about what has already happened in their backyards. A perception for the potential clash of civilization is propagated through the concept of the two world theory. Given that a politically unified Islamic Um’mah has never existed and the environments for sectarian and tribal conflicts have been heightened, conditions hardly exist for the clash of civilization. The intellectual failures of Muslim ruling elite are letting the politically motivated fundamentalist – religious extremists - to get away with inflicting heavy loss of Muslim life by fellow Muslims in sectarian and tribal warfare – conditions that weakens all Muslim nations from Ankara to Islamabad. Thus, the threats to survival of Muslim nations are ever growing sectarian and tribal wars; the potential for the clash of civilization is remote at best. Sectarian and tribal wars are two cancers of the Muslim nations. The clash of civilization as an idea should remind Muslims that individually or collectively all Muslim nations can’t match technological superiority enjoyed by America and the West in digital and WMD driven international warfare. Like volcano, the eruption of sectarian and tribal violence among Muslim from Ankara to Islamabad is unpredictable but with each eruption consequences are very devastating for Muslims, all in the name of Islam. In the Muslim nations in general and in Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan in particular, violent sectarianism and tribalism are alive and kicking even though the media, the government and the political parties are mostly in denial about its consequences. Nothing kills Muslims like sectarianism and tribal wars; a civil war is being blamed in Iraq for Sunnis killing Shias and vice a versa and people of Pakistan, Baluchistan and Afghanistan have become sensitized to tribal warfare. The man who plunged Iraq into a sectarian hell in Iraq, Abu Musab Zarqawi, was trained and primed with sectarian and tribal politics in terrorist camps of Pakistan. Pakistan has been steadily killing its religious leaders and other prominent citizens since 1986 when the three major Deobandi seminaries in Karachi, Lahore and Nowshehra issued fatwas declaring the Shia community apostates. Other sects declared apostates in Pakistan include Ahmadiyas, Ismailis and Bahais. Islamic Um’mah is a house divided and ill prepared to face any real challenge from America and the West. The region between Ankara and Islamabad is a semi-chaotic meeting ground of ideas and ideologies, liberalism and terrorism, commerce and crime, where Turks, Kurds, Persians, Arabs and South Asian Muslims of Sunni and Shia faith have engaged and afflicted each other before and since the 19th century. It is a most backward realm of Islam. The transition away from the Cold War era Arab, Persian and South Asian autocracies - the police states - will face violent sectarian and tribal warfare before a clash of civilization between Islamic and non-Islamic states can materialize. Non-Islamic nations see only one world and fundamentalist Islam as a challenge to be dealt with politically. Pakistan has so far failed to neutralize Pakistan based resurgent Taliban from destabilizing democratically elected Afghanistan government supported by America and NATO. It has now agreed to peace with Taliban and al Qaeda leadership and lowered the priority to vigorously fight the War on Terrorism. If President Musharraf continues to challenge American regional hegemony by collaborating with Iran and Chinese and fails to stabilize Baluchistan and neutralize Pakistan based Taliban insurgency from Waziristan to Afghanistan then the region is likely to face redrawing of national borders as a result of tribal warfare. Kishan Bhatia
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