Emerging Shia Power in the Aftermath Of US Withdrawal from Iraq

By: Hari Sud
December 31, 2005
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Imagine 20 years from now, where US has finally concluded that its adventure in Iraq (or misadventure) from 2003 to 2007 was wrong and has completely obliterated its prestige in the Muslim world. The oil and gas shortages are beginning to show as dwindling reserves and supplies are hotly contested by the developed world and newly emerged world of India, China. Iraq after fighting a civil war amongst itself for ten years, have finally established a majority rule. The Shias of Iraq have triumphed over the Sunni rule of thirteen centuries and have established themselves firmly in the port city of Basra. Their religious places of Najaf & Karbala are no longer under Sunni domination. The religious leaders are exerting more and more political pressure. Iran is playing a bigger role, not only in Iraqi politics but also over the Persian Gulf. Kuwaiti Sheikhs (Sunnis) and Saudi Arabian princes (Sunnis) are feeling the heat. They both cannot prevent emergence of a Shia power next door. US influence is limited in the aftermath of Gulf war II. Saudi princes are under pressure from the remnants of Al Qaeda and cannot take any direction due to infighting within the family. Iran, in-spite of US and West’s pressure has declared that it possesses a nuclear bomb. The net impact of all the above is the emergence of Shia power, quite unlike anything like this has ever happened in the past thirteen centuries. One hundred million Shia’s who are likely to dominate the Persian Gulf are too numerous for anybody in the Middle East to challenge them. The new Shia dominion has geographically divided the Muslim crescent in the Middle East into two, with Sunni Pakistan and Afghans in the East and Sunni Arabs in the West. That is the scenario unfolding in next twenty years.

Unfortunately that was not the US intention in 2003. It is the outcome of war fought with no clear political object and mired in controversy from the start.

Shia Power in the Middle East

For thirteen hundred years, Shia wished a power base other than Iran to unseat the Sunnis. They did not wish to be ruled either from Damascus & Baghdad or by the Ottoman Turks from Turkey. WWI created a new Sunni monarchy, which was overthrown by another Sunni dominated leadership whose leader Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the Americans. Only once before in the early eighteenth century they came close to realizing their dream. Emigrating Shia clerics from Iran to southern Iraq fomented trouble, which the Ottoman Turks (Sunnis) stamped out firmly. Gulf War II weakened the Sunni power base, which was the cue for the majority Shias to exert their power. Western principle of democracy, adult franchise aided their cause. Shia’s voted heavily in elections both for the constituent assembly and for the parliament. Sunnis stayed away from the election exercises and are regretting it. The West is in a hurry to leave Iraq and wish to handover power to whosoever wins the elections. At the moment, Shia’s are in the lead. The West is not unwilling to this outcome, since Shia religious leadership has established friendly ties with the West. In fact they both are laying the foundation of Shia power block. The clear outcome in Iraq may take 10 to 15 years. Sunnis are unlikely to lay low and handover power easily. Civil war will follow and the outcome will be in Shia’s favor. The Sunnis may have to either split the country on religious and ethnic lines or except to be governed by the Shias.

What about the Oil, which was West’s Primary Objective in Iraq

Oil probably was the main reason why US wished to topple Saddam Hussein. He was no more tyrant than General Musharraf in Pakistan or Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. US wished Saddam out and lay its hands on Iraqi oil. Their wish has not materialized and will not materialize. There is likely to be a twenty years of turmoil ahead for this region. When the dust finally settles, Iraqi oil-producing region may have undergone dramatic destruction. The oil will still be in the ground, but infrastructure needed to pump it out and ship it to the world markets will lie in ruins. The new rulers in Iraq will have to contend with this calamity. This is not necessarily a bad news for them. They do not wish to exhaust all their resources, cheap. Instead they wish to conserve it for the future. US interests will not be served at all with civil unrest and turmoil. Their $400 Billion expense on the war and thousands of American lives lost would have served no purpose. Instead bitterness will prevail on both sides. Iraqis will have to be content with their thirty thousand dead and utter destruction of their country. Rest of the Muslim world will be mad at the Americans for senseless murder and bombings. Oil prices will scale new heights. This confusion will prevent US from acting decisively against Iran on nuclear issue.

Geography, Iraq and Iran

Combined 100 million Shias in Iraq and Iran live in oil rich, otherwise a semi arid land. It is surrounded by the Indian Ocean in the south and people of Turkish origin in the north. Indian Ocean is the gateway for Iraqi and Iranian commerce and is also the route for invasion by the outside powers. The Turkish people in the north had no agenda towards the Iranian and Iraqi people, hence have never moved south to reach the sea. East and west of Iraq and Iran, as I said before, is surrounded by Muslim Sunni powers. The Iranian people and their Shia cousins in Iraq are of Indo Aryan decent and have little in common with the Arabs in the west or the Arab minority which ruled them for centuries. The Arab Muslim invading forces conquered Iranians in the seventh and eighth century. The existing Zoroastrian order of Iran was ejected in favor of new political power lead by Prophet Mohammed’s followers. Dispute over leadership after Prophet Mohammed’s death turned into war and defeat of one group in the Iraqi planes of Najaf and Karbala. The loser’s version of Mohammed’s teachings did not die in the battlefields of Iraq. Instead the Iranian people adopted it as a role model. Since then it has been known as Shia branch of the Muslim religion. Arabs in Baghdad and Damascus left them alone and turned elsewhere for loot, plunder and converts. Historically, three times numerous Indo Aryan Shias in Iran, formed a solid wall against the future Arab adventure towards India. A small Arab foothold in Sind gained by an Arab general in 712AD was eliminated as Iranians stood in the way. Hence future Muslim invasion of India took place from the northwest by the Afghans and the Turks, who were also Sunnis, but no friends of Arabs. The Arabs traveled west and conquered all of North Africa and Spain in a short span of one hundred and fifty years.

In today’s context Arabs find themselves at a disadvantage. Arab lands are sparsely populated. Their governing system is inferior to Shias of Iran. The latter are better educated and can boast of advancement in science and technology at par with Pakistan or any other advanced Muslim state in the world. In addition they are located on the eastern shores of Persian Gulf, the latter being the cross road of all oil exports to the world. This location became an issue of contention when Iran and Iraq under Saddam Hussein fought a ten-year war in eighties. US realizing that Iranians could interdict the oil shipping routes, sided with Saddam Hussein. This war ended in a draw. But the point of importance of the Persian Gulf and Iranian presence in the neighborhood has never been lost on the Americans.

Thanks to the Americans, the unintended outcome of Gulf War I & II is emergence of Iran as a dominant power in the Persian Gulf. If Saddam Hussein and Baathists rulers of Iraq had not been unseated then, a perfect balance existed between oil rich militarily capable Iraq and similar Iran. Under this arrangement US could have exploited all the Iraqi oil wealth.

Evil of Axis and US Attention Towards Iran

When George Bush (Senior) stopped short of Baghdad in 1991. He realized that unseating Saddam Hussein from power would leave Iranians as a dominant power in the region. He was right. The same reasoning was not in the mind of George Bush (Junior) when he unleashed American forces towards Baghdad in 2003. It was later that Bush (Junior) advisors realized that as soon as US leaves Iraq, Iran would become a dominant power in the region. Also if the Iranians ever get their hands on a nuclear bomb, US will have to completely vacate the Persian Gulf region. Hence, attention has been turned towards Iran these days. Proven and unproven reports indicate that Iran is working towards acquiring nuclear bomb. Supposing that the latter is true, it will make Iran not only the dominant power but also an unchallenged power of the region. Mindful of that international opinion is being built against Iran. A possible sabotage effort together with Pakistani military is in progress to sabotage all nuclear establishments in Iran. In addition, India’s arm has been twisted to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran. If all these fail, an invasion of Iranian nuclear facilities may be the only option.

Is there a likelihood of that?

The possibility is remote. The Iraqi invasion of 2003 was not a cakewalk. The Iranian invasion may turn out to be worst.

Then, a political question may be posed to the American leadership i.e. “why are you so stung by the Iranian nuclear developments? How come the Pakistanis suffered no such eventuality when they stole and secretly built their nuclear bomb? Why were the latter let of the hook when they were found to be trading in nuclear technology and materials?”

It is unlikely that Iran will listen to any of the US arguments. They will continue to build their nuclear device. Published reports indicate that they are about ten years away from their bomb. US can only slow them down but not completely stop them

Consequences of Iran Bomb in the Region

Making of the Iranian nuclear bomb will have great consequences for the region. US may be first to suffer indirect consequences. Iranian nuclear bomb will:

1. Hasten US withdrawal from the region.

2. Kill any civil unrest if it persists in Iraq after US withdrawal, say in 2007. All independence movement in Kurdistan and Sunni region will die down as soon as Iran is known to possess the bomb.

3. Arabs will stop being second fiddle to the Americans. Saudi family may not survive as master of the Arabia peninsula. Al-Qaeda or its friends may emerge as dominant political power in the Sunni Arabia.

4. Pakistan will be sandwiched between nuclear Iran and nuclear India.

5. Oil will be expensive. Iranians will set oil price at par with high priced technology items from the West.

6. Oil and gas from Turkmenistan and its neighbors, which currently goes into the Russian pipelines to Europe and newly built pipeline to Turkish port of Ceyhan may travel south to Indian Ocean and shorten the overland travel distance.

7. India may secure its oil and gas needs without worrying much about possible Pakistani interdiction. The latter will be afraid to interfere in any commercial deal in which Iran revenue is impacted.

8. In the near future, Iranians may safeguard their eastern borders by helping Buloch acquire their independence. This is the price Pakistan will have to pay for helping the US against the Iranians.

9. The feudal society of Afghanistan after 1500 years may be civilized. The warlords may be a thing of the past.

Conclusions

US are not comfortable with the recent Iraqi invasions. All pretext for war have been found without merits. The cost in money and human lives has been great. The present political order in the US both in the legislative body and presidential advisors will not survive the public scrutiny. Public is mad at the misleading reasons given for the war. A forced withdrawal of American could take place any time before or after the US Presidential elections in 2008. Military action against Iran to remove its nuclear bomb may not be sanctioned. All this will leave Iran as dominant power in the region. Shia Iran together with Shia Iraq where 60% population is Shia will emerge as a dominant power in the region. Civil unrest in Iraq following American withdrawal could balkanize the region. The landlocked northern Iraqi region, populated by Sunnis who for centuries dominated Iraq may find them at the short end of the stick. Western loss will be control over oil wealth and possible forced withdrawal from Persian Gulf.

Hari Sud

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