What Chanakaya would have done if Indo-US Nuclear Deal had hit an Impasse?

By: Hari Sud
December 18, 2005
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The famed master of political diplomacy of ancient India would not let an opportunity go, if the deal was or in today’s context good for the country. Indo-US Nuclear deal of July 18th is one such deal. It confers on India an almost nuclear status, allows export of large nuclear power plants from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, allows India’s participation in fusion research, cements Indo-US economic ties further, provides India with much needed relief of electricity and bypasses the need to locate a gas pipeline via Pakistan immediately. In return, India gives away nothing much, except to separate its military related nuclear program from the civilian program. In addition India has to put the civilian nuclear energy units under the nuclear regulatory scanner.

In last five months, India’s Prime Minister is facing criticism at home and a determined opposition in US. Chanakaya in Arthashastra states that the ruler should use any means to attain its goal and he requires no moral sanctions. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has to do everything and anything within the framework of July 18th agreement to get this deal thru. Challenges in India for this deal are minor (ignore the left parties). The US nuclear lobby is mounting a formidable challenge. It is group of, out of control former US administration officials, academicians and think tanks who still live in the Cold War environment. Their main aim is to prevent expansion of the nuclear group at the expense of progress. Their challenges are to be dealt with politically, diplomatically and if need be, by lobbying with the US elected officials.

First we have to deal with Bush Administration’s response to the nuclear lobby. So far their response has been lukewarm. They have not fully highlighted the positives of this deal. All Congressional opposition will melt away, once the lawmakers see the merits of the deal. To-date, the US State Department Officials have spent more time listening to the lawmaker’s complaints than to provide them information on advantages of the deal. Whatever their effort, it is to be supplemented by India with additional information and lobbying on India’s behalf by diplomats and well-paid lobby groups. Hence, India has dual obstacles to overcome. First, energize the US State Department to work harder to get the deal thru. Second, bypass the nuclear lobby in the US Congress with commercial deals. Chanakaya faced a similar dual obstacle in his attempt to unify India in 300BC. On one side he faced Alexander’s troops left by him to overlord western half of India and on the other side there was an incompetent king in Patliputra (Nanda Dynasty). Chanakya overcame both of them and unified India for the first time in the ancient history. Circumstances today are not similar but conclusions are same. India is on way to greatness. Issues like these are holding up the progress. They have to be overcome.

Who are this Lobby Group and What Do They Want?

This, status quo enthusiast group, consists of old administration officials who have made nuclear non-proliferation as their business. They were sitting silently in high places when Pakistan stole all the nuclear technology and watched China provide technical know-how to Pakistan. Surprisingly, a bunch of former Clinton Administration officials have joined this vociferous group. Sixteen of these nuclear enthusiasts signed a letter addressed to the US Congress on November 19th. They are demanding answers on issues, which are not final yet. It may be pointed out that the framework of the agreement was finalized on July 18th. Details are being worked out just about now. This lobby group wants answers on issues that are either not material or are being finalized. In fact, their agenda is to scrap the deal.

What are they saying? Here are a few pointers of their views!

1. If US supply India the nuclear fuel, then India could use its current fissile material stockpile for nuclear weapons. (Worthless point, because Indian stockpile is not large enough to threaten anybody. With the separation of military and civilian nuclear plants, Indian stockpile is unlikely to grow rapidly)

2. Safeguards on civilian nuclear plants are voluntary for India. The lobby group believes that India could opt out of these safeguards any time in the future. (Unlikely because that will mean jeopardizing huge investment and economic well being of the country)

3. The group has highlighted the impact of China’s assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear program and future of these countries co-operation. (India cannot be penalized for what Chinese and Pakistanis are doing. Rather sanctions should be applied on both China and Pakistan for the former assisting the latter, even though the NPT forbade it)

4. The group wants all the details of the current negotiations and agreements before the legislatures vote on the Indo-US deal. (These details are likely to be forthcoming as soon as a positive signal is given to both US and Indian official to finalize the loose ends)

In essence, the U.S. nuclear lobby group is saying to the rest of the world that you can`t have nukes, but we`re going to have bigger and better ones. It is blackmail.

Surprisingly the US legislatures and its leaders are succumbing to this onslaught with noises of their own. Richard Lugar, the Republican Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee has said that the treaty is dead on arrival. He says that India’s nuclear record unsatisfying. Similar and much shriller noises have emanated from the other responsible legislatures. The foregoing is all the work of this nuclear lobby. This learned group is neither acting honorably and is not preparing itself for the future. World has changed in 35 years, China is at the threshold of greatness and India is right behind it. Hence all roadblocks thrown by them are pointless and worthless. Harping on 35-year-old treaty to monopolize nuclear energy, which has a greater peaceful potential than military, is plain wicked. They have to look somewhere else for nuclear proliferation (Pakistan & China). Let me quote Chanakya here:

“There are two ways to get rid of thorns and wicked persons; use footwear for the first and shame the second to prevent them from raising their face again”

Remind the lobbyist that they were in control when they allowed Pakistan to build the bomb. They could have prevented proliferation then by using the same tactics as they are using on India. They did not act then, hence they are at fault.

What India has to do?

The matter has gone too far. The nuclear lobby has gained higher moral ground. Chances of the Indo-US deal being scuttled have grown greater. India cannot idly standby and watch its demise. Alternative is to buy gas from Iran and transport it across Pakistan. Not a very good alternative. Hence what does India has to do?

Offer sweeteners, which will blunt the lobby’s pressure on the agreement.

1. Economic

a. As various analysts have said before, India needs four large size nuclear power generation units. Each will cost about $4 Billion. India can promise to buy a bulk of the technology and hardware in US, creating high paying US jobs. This will be a good incentive to begin. Later when these plants are operational, India could export goods and services to US and leave the extra earnings behind in US banks. This is China model, used very successfully by them. Why not to follow it. No legislative body in their right mind can turn this lucrative offer down. And if they do, they will face an open public wrath.

b. Buy US military planes, which are needed by the Indian Air Force. Offer for advanced version of F-18 is on the table. Total contract value is about $8-10 Billion over next 10 years. It will create thousands of jobs in aero industry heavy states of North West and East. States and cities will welcome this very large order. They will be on India’s side and pressing the US Congress for passage of the Indo-US Nuclear deal.

c. Advance the Indo-US economic ties further. Look for American goods to buy as opposed to goods elsewhere.

2. Military

a. US are in need of a partner to police the Indian Ocean vital shipping lanes. They have indicated a number of times indirectly that they are interested in India take over this role at least from Bay of Bengal to Malacca Straits. The Indian Navy is very willing to partner with the US. It is the politicians, which have been a bit reluctant. Within three years, the Indian Navy will have a new Aircraft Carrier and Submarines. This punch will allow it to counter any moves by China in the Indian Ocean littoral states and prevent pirates from terrorizing the Malacca Straits.

b. Recent Air exercises in India have convinced US that Indian Air Force is technically competent and a force to reckon with. They wish to use India to project force in and around the Indian Ocean. India should go along with this idea. It will further cement India as major power.

3. Political and Diplomatic

a. Regional co-operation to control volatile situation in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the Indian Ocean is no longer within the power of US. Their involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq concurrently has stretched them too far. Iran’s nuclear program has become an issue these days. US and Europe has burnt its bridges in Myanmar (Burma). Sri Lanka is about to reach a boiling point soon. US stock in Tanzania, Kenya is not very high. All this points to one direction only i.e. US involvement, no matter how good, is unwelcome. They need a regional respectable leader. India has the standing and the capability to be one such leader. India independently and also with US and European support could stabilize situation and counter the influence of groups like Al Qaeda or other unscrupulous local leaders.

This will be a welcome relief for US and benefit to India.

Combine all these economic, military and political incentives and US legislature will be willing to sign on to this deal. After all they are not blind to emerging India. Various Congressional delegations have visited India in recent months and have seen progress under way. Many US elected officials in their various uttering have applauded India’s progress with practically very little outside money.

In the end all the above are details and opinions towards one end i.e. India occupying the exalted position amongst nations of the world. Any opposition to the Indo-US Nuclear deal is a mean to deny this status to the world’s second most populous country. This country very soon is going to be a trillion-dollar economy behind US & China. Don’t these learned men realize that status quo on NPT by definition is denial of greatness to India. Has not India followed every rule of the civilized world, and today can say with pride; yes we are a fully functional democracy.

Chanakaya will be very proud of modern India’s achievements. Too bad it took 50 years after independence to get adjusted to the new environment. If Chanakaya was advising the King today, he would have advised against surrender to this petty nuclear lobby or a few heady politicians in the US. He would have advised to tackle them head on and prevail. He had poor opinion of people who stand in the way of progress. He said:

The people honor a learned man. A learned man commands respect everywhere for his learning. Indeed, learning is honored everywhere

A man attains greatness by his merits, not simply by occupying an exalted seat. Can we call a crow an eagle simply because he sits on the top of a tall building.

(Arthashastra)

Hari Sud

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