By: Prof. Dipak Basu
December 03, 2005
expressed here are author’s own and not of this website. Full disclaimer
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Nuclear issue: Indian media is silent about it
End of The Indo-US Nuke Deal?
What If India-US Nuclear Deal Fails
USA"s nuclear design on India
Discord on Indo–US Nuclear Deal
Indo-US nuclear Deal and its consequences
N-Deal: Plan B if the Deal Fails
US Legislative Process: Indo-US N-Deal
N-deal: Economic, Political and
Indo-American Nuclear Pact - Rationales
India"s Nuclear Surrender to USA
P-6 and The Nuclear Truth Narayanan
India's Options to Pakistan's Nuclear Threat
Cost Pakistan Incurred to Build the Nuclear Bomb
Nuclear Black Market in Pakistan
Has America Gained Control of Their Nuclear Weapons?
Once again, Indian media is misinterpreting facts and cannot differentiate
euphoria from the reality. The current joy in the India media that the US
is about to relax total ban of nuclear cooperation with India and to offer
India nuclear power plants and F-16 aircrafts, is based on
misrepresentation of facts.
The Reality No 1:
The correct situation is that USA is not offering anything at all, but has
forced every members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, about 44 countries of
the World including Russia, not to supply anything at all to India
regarding nuclear energy and related matters. Russia after India’s nuclear
tests in 1974 was the only country for India as a source of materials for
the nuclear energy including weapons and nuclear power plants. The only
exceptions are USA, which has continued to supply fuels for the Tarapur
nuclear plant for some years and China, who has supplied fuels for the
Tarapur plant after the refusal of the US to do so. Russia so far has
supplied India heavy water plants, reprocessing plants, Fast Breeder
Reactors and two fresh nuclear power plants with the excuse that the
contracts for these were signed between India and the Soviet Union, which
Russia has to oblige.
However, other member countries particularly USA would not listen to that
argument anymore and have practically forced Russia to stop supplying any
new nuclear power plants or any new supplies for the India’s nuclear
industries, unless India would allow inspections by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). That would practically means that India has
no choice but to abandon nuclear weapons programme and to accept
full-scale safeguard from the IAEA so that in future India would not be
able to produce any weapons grade nuclear materials either. Due to the
objections raised by USA, Russia is disinterested to continue to supply
nuclear materials or power plants to India anymore. The sudden shift of
Russia’s position is the result of India’s decision to ignore Russia and
to buy weapons systems, aircrafts, submarines from Israel, Britain and
France and India’s growing interest to purchase aircrafts from USA.
Now USA is suggesting that if India would purchase nuclear power plants
not from Russia but from the US, these restrictions can be relaxed in case
India can separate out the civilians power plants from those which can be
even remotely utilized by the Indian defense establishments. Both of these
steps require massive financial investments. The purchase of nuclear power
plants from USA would mean paying possibly ten times more than the cost of
corresponding Russian nuclear power plants.
Thus, it is a kind of business negotiations with carrots and sticks
attached to it. In practice, India has no other option but to accept the
American offer, as President Putin is not Yeltsin, who has rejected the
American demand in 1993 not to supply any defense equipments to India
particularly rocket engines which can be utilized to manufacture longer
range missiles. India’s relationship with Russia is going downhill for the
last few years as India is purchasing weapons at a much higher costs from
France, Israel, Britain and will possibly buy from USA, not from Russia.
As a result, Putin is reluctant to support India anymore.
The nuclear offer of the US is not a friendly gesture to India as the
Indian media is trying to portray but a process of surrender for India
regarding its nuclear energy and weapons programme. If India buys nuclear
power plants from the US, these would be under full-scale inspection of
the IAEA, thus India cannot divert anything from these plants for the
defense services. India will not get the reprocessing plant, without which
it cannot manufacture nuclear weapons. If India buys not from the
Russians, they would be reluctant to help India in future regarding
missiles, rockets, and nuclear fuel enrichment programme.
Thus, gradually India nuclear weapons programme will disappear. India’s
efforts to develop missiles and rockets would be affected adversely too.
Thus, India would be much less powerful than Pakistan in every aspect, as
Pakistan has no such constraints. It would continue to receive both
advanced nuclear weapons and missiles from China in future as it had
received in the past with the full knowledge of the US since the days of
The Reality No 2:
The media both in India and in USA is giving the impression that USA is
trying to make India as a bulwark against China. In fact, USA since 1972
has made China as a bulwark against the Soviet Union by supplying
indirectly every type of weapons technology via Israel, France, Pakistan,
and Turkey. USA also made China as the permanent member of the UN Security
Council as a counterweight against the Soviet Union.
However, USA has no intention to use India in the same way because of some
important reasons. There was no American investment in the Soviet Union in
1972, but the bulk of the foreign investments in China today are from the
US and its allied countries. The Soviet Union did not have in 1972 massive
amounts of US Dollars as its foreign exchange reserve, as China has today.
There was virtually no trade between USA and the Soviet Union except
during the late 1980s. However, China’s exports and as a result its
economy depends on USA, UK, Australia, Japan and Western Europe.
If USA wants to destroy China as a power, it can do so without firing a
single bullet, but by just not importing from China and asking its allies
not to import from China. USA had followed that policy in 1934 against
Japan, but it has no intension to follow it against China, because that
would undermine investments of large number of American companies and
their profit. China can also retaliate against USA just by selling its
Dollar reserve, which would mean a massive devaluation of the US Dollar
and destruction of the special status of the US Dollar as the
international reserve currency – a fiat money by which USA can buy
anything from the rest of the world just by printing its own currency.
There is no need for the US to earn foreign exchange to pay for its
imports or to pay for the American military bases all over the world in
any other currency but in US Dollar.
This unique position would
be diminished if China suddenly exchanges its Dollar holdings into Euro.
That can destroy the American economy, as USA would not be able to use
Dollar to get its imports. USA would be unable to pay for the expenses of
the American military bases as well thus, reducing the US to a regional
power, not a world power. Close bilateral relationship through trade and
investments has made USA and China indispensable to each other.
Because of these threats to the American Dollar and the America’s special
status as a super-power, USA is reluctant even to recognize Taiwan as a
separate country, but still insisting upon the “one-China” policy, which
basically approves Chinese colonialism over Taiwan. USA also has no policy
towards Tibet, which was colonized by China in 1949. President Clinton has
declared China as the strategic partner of USA. President Bush recently
joined hands with China to oppose India’s possible membership of the UN
Security Council. However, in 1972, President Nixon had no objection
against China’s membership of the UN Security Council. USA even had forced
the expulsion of Taiwan from the U.N to make room for China.
That was the reason when India has declared after the nuclear tests in
1998 that China is the enemy number one for India, it has cut no ice in
USA. President Clinton still has imposed sanctions against India and India
was isolated in the world temporarily. President Bush has forced India to
start the peace-process with Pakistan, who has already killed more than
50,000 people in the Jammu & Kashmir and has managed to spread terrorism
throughout India. USA also forced India to abandon its development of
long-range missiles and any further nuclear testing. As a result, India
has no credible nuclear forces and is in no match for China. This
situation will not change in future in favour of India, as USA does not
want India to have either nuclear weapons or missiles.
USA is not offering India any advanced weapons system or aircrafts. The
F-16 aircraft, which USA has offered India is equivalent to Russian
Mig-29, which India already got about ten years ago and is under
production in HAL factories in India. USA is delivering same aircrafts to
Pakistan and to a large number of other countries, as it wants to dispose
of old aircrafts. A pure business deal from which USA not India will gain
substantially is repackaged by the media as the friendly gesture of the
United States to India.
Does India has credible nuclear force:
A credible nuclear force should be able to withstand the first strike by
its adversary. It also should be able to carry our retaliatory nuclear
strike against the enemy. When Indian’s nuclear delivery system depends
only on the aircrafts, as India’s missiles are not fitted with nuclear
weapons, India has doubtful capacity to strike back against Pakistan and
has no capacity at all against China. Against China, India has Russian
Tupolev-95 strategic bomber with 6000km range, but it is doubtful whether
they can penetrate Chinese defense. India’s Agni-2 has a range of 2200km,
thus it cannot reach most parts of China.
India needs to develop immediately a missile with 5000km range, which can
strike China effectively; however, that is not possible due to the
pressure from the U.S. The development of Agni-3 is delayed by more than
ten years by now due to the objections from the U.S. With the Chinese
mobile missile system, the best option for India to have nuclear powered
submarine which can go close to China’s coast. Although it was offered by
Russia a few years ago, India has opted for old French submarines, which
are of no help in this matter.
China has a formidable nuclear force. It has deployed some 125 long range
(1700km or more) nuclear armed ballistic missiles, It has developed DF-31
ballistic missiles with a range of 8000 km, which can hit any parts of
India from anywhere in China. Other missiles in the armory of China
include CSS-2, CSS-3, and CSS-5 of 1700km range, which also can hit India
from Tibet. However, China has decided to use Pakistan against India, by
supplying whatever China has. Thus, Pakistan is now more powerful in
nuclear weapons delivery system than India can be in near future.
For India, aircrafts are the only available delivery system for nuclear
weapons. Russian Sukhoy-30 and MIG-29 with a range up to 1400km, French
Jaguar with a similar range, Russian MIG-27 with a slightly reduced range
are the possible options for India. None of these can be useful against
China. Whether they can penetrate Pakistan’s defense is a big question,
because by the time India will be able to react after the first strike by
Pakistan, India’s airfields and the aircrafts will be wiped out.
Pakistan’s M-11 missiles obtained from China are mobile missiles although
these have short ranges of 300km. ‘No-Dong’ missiles obtained from North
Korea with the approval of China has 1500km range. This can cover most
important parts of India. Pakistan has no need, unlike that of India, to
conduct any tests to maintain its nuclear weapons, as it can obtain these
whenever required from China. China does not bother to obey the
Non-Proliferation Treaty; it has already supplied Chasma nuclear plant to
India’s position on nuclear plants:
For India, even the supply of adequate amounts of nuclear materials for
weapons development is in doubt. The proposed new reactors in Kudankulam
cannot be built by Russia anymore because of American objections. In
Kudankulam Russia already built two reactors and provided low interest
loans of $1.5 billion. Russia has resumed supplies of low-enriched nuclear
fuel for Tarapur plant, originally built by USA, but abandoned after 1974.
USA is now objecting to that supplies too. The realistic option for India
is too wait for the completion in 2010 of Kalapakkam Fast Breeder Reactor,
built by Russia to provide India enriched uranium for the nuclear weapons.
However, that route also can be closed by USA who is increasing pressure
on Russia through the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) of 44 nations. Unless
India will abandon its nuclear weapons, it cannot be a member of the NSG
either. To override the objections of the NSG, Russia has offered India a
floating nuclear reactor, which can be placed near India’s shore. However,
India is so far reluctant to accept it, as it would certainly annoy USA.
The Possible Role of India:
The reality is that by accepting American pseudo-friendship India is
becoming weaker than even Pakistan, who has long-range missiles fitted
with nuclear weapons imported from China and can be used against India at
any time. As Pakistan has the policy of ‘first strike’ with nuclear
weapons, as obvious from the preparations of General Musharaf during the
Kargil invasion of 1999, it is doubtful whether India, without the support
of the Soviet Union as it had during both 1965 and 1971 wars, can
withstand the first nuclear strike by Pakistan. The most likely scenario
is that India will collapse, which would open the door for invasions by
Pakistan, China, and Nepal.
India’s policy makers may have thought about this possibility, which has
provoked them to surrender so easily to the American demand to accept the
control of the IAEA on the nuclear facilities in India. USA wants India to
be reduced to the level of the Philippines, Thailand, Kenya, or Egypt,
whereby India would receive American political backings, some economic
co-operations and foreign aid but it would not have any power of any
significance but would be dependent upon the American goodwill.
The process of surrender has started in Jammu & Kashmir where India is
gradually willing to surrender the sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir for a
joint administration or regional autonomy or open border with
demilitarization of the region. The nuclear co-operation with USA would
start the second phase of surrender to abolish nuclear weapons in India,
but Pakistan, as an ally of both NATO and China, would still have nuclear
weapons. It is unfortunate that the Indian media and the so-called experts
of foreign policy cannot see the reality but have decided to live in a
Prof. Dipak Basu
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Prof. Dipak Basu
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