| Bihar Scenarios – An Analysis | |||
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By: Stephen V John
March 01, 2005 
FeedbackThe Mother of Hung Assemblies in Bihar should deliver a solution in the coming weeks. And it will. Let’s analyze certain scenarios that could happen in the coming days. Scenario 1: The Governor calling BJP and JD (U) to form Government This scenario could happen since their alliance was formed before the election and if the Governor considers it as the single largest political block in the assembly. In that situation BJP will try its best to persuade Paswan to join the Government, even offering him the CM’s post. In this situation the question is, will Paswan accept such an offer. Paswan is a calculated politician. He does not want to risk his Pro-Muslim image just for the sake of power at this time. He knows if he can win the heart of Muslims this time, then he could form a government in the next election. So I am ruling out the chance that Paswan will accept the offer to become the CM by forming an alliance with BJP. But there is one thing he could do. Paswan can persuade BJP that he will join the alliance if BJP will accept a Muslim LJP leader as the CM. If he pushes this agenda then it will be a tough nut to crack for BJP. If BJP accepts a Muslim CM, there is a good chance that Paswan will join forces with BJP. But it would not certainly win the hearts of Muslims. They would still view him with suspicion. If he accepts a BJP offer, then he will certainly have to leave the central ministry. Then he has to wait until the next assembly or Lok Sabha election to weigh his decisions. It will be a big gamble. And I do not think he will take such a risk. And if BJP could not get the support of LJP, then they sure will lose the confidence motion. Scenario 2: LJP Government with a Muslim CM Paswan’s main move will be to argue for a Muslim LJP CM. In this scenario, I do not think RJD will be a part of the ministry. Paswan could persuade Sonia Gandhi to force Laloo to support a Muslim CM. This will be a two edged sword for Laloo. If he supports a Muslim LJP CM, then he will certainly loose control over government and he will merely support the government from outside until he gets a chance to topple it. Then Laloo will be termed as an anti-Muslim if he topples a Muslim CM. The will create crack in the Yadav-Muslim combination. And if he does not support a Muslim LJP CM, again he will be called as anti-Muslim. If such a scenario happens either he will support an LJP government with a Muslim CM or he could choose the next scenario. Scenario 3: Laloo proposing a Muslim CM candidate Laloo is always a master politician. He could come up with something nobody ever thought about doing. And that makes him prominent at this time. He could come up with a Muslim CM and keep his party alive in Bihar. He could then argue with LJP to prove their true love towards Muslims. This scenario could be a double-edged sword for Paswan in the same sense that Scenario 2 was for Laloo. Paswan could support such a move or he could walk away from it. Sonia might also support such a move from Laloo’s side. Such a situation would improve Congress’s image. But if Paswan supports a Muslim RJD CM, then Sonia might have to give him some concessions in the Cabinet. Paswan will argue for a more prominent portfolio in the Cabinet. He would even argue for the Railway Ministry that Laloo is holding currently. If Laloo is reluctant to give up the ministry, then Paswan could either ask for another prominent ministry that Congress is holding or persuade Sonia for the Railway Ministry. In this scenario, Laloo would have to give up something, mainly his Railway Ministry, if he wants Paswan to support his CM candidate. In this situation, Paswan would use all his horse-trading techniques to make himself the ultimate winner. Other Scenarios: An Unthinkable Political Alliance or President’s Rule Other than the previous 3 scenarios other unthinkable situations could also develop. Let me highlight certain scenarios that could happen. Remember these are unthinkable situations at this time. But still it can happen, because this is India. 1. JD (U) forming the government with the support of RJD and Congress by forming a “Secular” alliance. This will keep Paswan away from the scene. JD (U) then will also join the central cabinet. 2. Paswan becoming the CM with RJD support by giving up Deputy CM post for RJD. RJD will be the real winner in such a situation. 3. An unlikely combination of RJD – Congress alliance with SP, BSP and CPI-ML, which will give the exact number of 122. But I don’t think something like that will happen. 4. President’s Rule in Bihar. But no body wants this situation. Such a situation will show the way for LJD from Central Cabinet.
In Indian politics the unthinkable could always happen. So let us weigh
our main 3 options. The call for a Muslim CM in Bihar will be high this
time. And there is a good chance that it might happen. Do you wish to reach IndiaCause readers? |
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by: Stephen V John India is not just a Regional Super Power February 24, 2005 |