By: Hari Sud
January 23, 2005

Mohammed Ali Jinnah in 1933 asked the British for the creation of a Muslim majority area in post-independence India. They agreed with him and will oblige him, should independence come to India. To the British, It was a 70 years old idea of their own. Immediately after the events of 1857, the British masters thought of dividing India in such a way that they could never come together and threaten the British hegemony in India. They theorized that the north, which from 1200AD had been ruled by the Muslim, be part British Muslim India and South which had its share of Muslim conquerors but not ruled by the Muslims be part of British Hindu India. This scheme, a brainchild of successive viceroys of India after 1857, was never put in place. The Prime Ministers in England wished to milk India for its wealth. Separating India into two would effectively cut the British revenues into half. Hence Jinnah’s call of 1933 was not new to them, except that they gave it a new name – Two Nation Theory. Jinnah, an Indian aristocrat and a nationalist became a pawn in the British thinking. The old concept of north and south were dumped in favor of Muslim majority provinces of West and East as Pakistan, in 1947. Jinnah himself a Bombay resident was forced to migrate to West Pakistan.

This division mainly on religious lines lasted only 23 years. In 1971 the Eastern wing broke free, as ethnic Bengali Muslims could not get along well with their brethren in the west. This is not the only strife, which Pakistan has faced in its 58 years of its existence. Baloch, Pashtuns and Sindhis and people of Pakistan occupied Kashmir are asking for freedom on the same lines as East Pakistanis did in 1971. Hence, the very existence of Pakistan is being threatened today.

What is Pakistan Made Off?

Pakistan has four distinct ethnic groups. Each is a majority in its own province. With failure of economic policies and lack of focus on national integration, each ethnic group is exerting influence to break free of the other. These ethnic groups are: 1). The Punjabis, who are the bulk of the Pakistani population, and live in between the rivers Indus and Ravi plains. They are a prosperous kind and supply 60% of the Pakistani GNP. Their agricultural achievements are second to none. They are Hindu converts to Islam under successive Muslim invasion from12th to 18th century. They are brave people, who resisted Alexander in 325BC and very nearly defeated him, except for a fifth columnist local king who lead Alexander’s Army behind the Punjabi lines. Ghauri, Changez, Timur, Nadir Shah, Babur etc. all came to Punjab and met resistance. This resistance continued until British in 1848 overpowered all the local leaders one by one. 2). The Sindhis are a distinct people who until Arab conqueror Mohammad Bin Qasim in 7th century were Hindus. Arab rule in this province, is very distinct from Turkic and Afghan rule in Punjab. It lasted till the 19th century when the British overpowered it. This province also saw its own share of invaders from Iran and Afghanistan. This province is very nearly a desert except along the banks of the river Indus and its distributaries. Prosperity along the banks of these rivers is comparable to Punjab. The Indus delta is bestowed with Pakistan’s main port of Karachi. It is the only outlet Pakistan has to the rest of the world. The city through the centuries has prospered with trade, commerce and industry. 3). A very nearly rebellious bunch of people, live in Pakistan’s province of Balochistan. They are dirt poor with no natural resources and no means to progress. It is a huge landmass on the southwestern part of Pakistan. Its people, the Marris, the Bugatis and the Mengals have been in perpetual conflict with the federal authorities for centuries. The British left them alone before 1947. Independent Pakistan has been in perpetual conflict with the people of this province. 4). The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) was created by the British to separate the wild bunch of people who live in the lands beyond Indus until the Afghanistan border and the Khyber Pass. The British never effectively gained control of this area. These people are of Pashtun extractions and have their cousins on the Afghan side of the border. From time to time they revolt from the central authority. Like British before them the Pakistani federal authorities cool them off with free guns and butter. They were the backbone US campaign to inflict a strategic defeat on the Soviet Union in eighties during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The land is mountainous and sparsely populated with no economic base. This is where Osma Bin Laden is hiding.

Pakistan occupies a portion of Kashmir after its invasion in 1948. It’s a strategic area, which borders China, India and Central Asian Republics. The Pakistani occupied Kashmir’s population is Muslim but of Shiite decent. They are docile and make their living thru sheep herding. They lack the very basics of means to make a living. British left them alone, but the Pakistani Army from time to time abuses them. They use the ethnic Pushtuns who are Sunnis to suppress them into submission. Pakistani Kashmiris wish to join the rest of Kashmir and India, except that the Pakistani army is standing in the way.

Hence, one can easily say that the ethnic diversification and perpetual conflicts have made Pakistan, ungovernable. It is just a matter of time, before it falls apart.

How Pak is governed?

It is not governed well. For the past 58 years, army has dominated the political landscape of the country. It has only one agenda i.e. grab rest of Kashmir from India. This single focus has resulted in excessive expenditure on defense, given rise to Jihadi movements and has completely ignored the economic welfare of the country. Jinnah probably is turning in his grave at the current state of affair of the country, he founded. From time to time the Pakistani treasury comes out empty and US and the World Bank & IMF come to rescue it. This, US does it not do it out of charity, but to gain a strategic alliance with its military rulers.

The federal system has all the institutions to run it as a democratic society but these institutions are controlled by the army hence are ineffective. The provinces have their own democratic system in Punjab and Sindhi but these institutions do not function at all. The Balochistan and NWFP are tribal society and are still governed as if they were in middle ages. The Pakistani occupied Kashmir is a military governed area, hence does not even have any semblance of a civil society.

The Army is mostly Punjabi in rank and file and has a sprinkling of Baloch and Pathan regiments. It is officered by a mix of immigrants from India (like General Musharraf) and Punjabis from the heartland of Indus and Ravi. The Indian immigrant officers have a burning desire to re-conquer India and return in triumph. The latter is the root cause of all disputes with India.

With lack of civil-political structure, the religious fanatics have made inroads into the hearts and minds of the people. With unlimited cash available from Saudi Arabia, they feign religious and ethnic trouble.

How the Past 58 Years is Catching up with Pakistan Today?

People of Pakistan especially in Sindh and Punjab have no outlet to determine their own economic and political future. Hence they have fallen behind. Just across the border in India, they see huge economic strides in progress but they are not allowed to either trade or learn. The latter is not part of the army’s agenda. With this economic muddle, each province is pulling the Pakistani union apart. It is leading into an untold chaos with untold results.

Sindhi

It is a province of 40 million people. It is a prosperous state and home of Pakistan’s largest city and the only Port. Its deep water makes it into an ideal location for cross road for sea borne commerce. The backbone of the city is the immigrant community of Mohajjar who came from India in 1947. Previously, Karachi was the city where Iranian Zorastrarians moved in the 7th century when Muslim Arabs occupied their country. It has a thriving Zorastrarian population. Unfortunately the city has the making of Beirut where third of the population is Sindhi, who have a cutthroat competition with the other third, Mohajjars. Last third comprise of Pashtuns, who make a living by being the middlemen in the drug trade. Army and the politicians have never been able to exert full control over the city.

Constant economic decline has made Sindhis bitter and demand impendence. Various organizations have been formed to demand complete independence from the Pakistani federal system. Notably, the Sindhi Solidarity Convention in 2002 demanded renegotiation with of the Pakistani federal system. Other terror groups have been formed, but without outside support they get squelched very quickly. Given a chance and support, they will revolt and eject the Punjabis out.

Balochistan

Pakistan has been hiding its repression in Balochistan for the past fifty years. The ancestors of the present restive populations fought General Ayub Khan’s regime in fifties and sixties. They again took up arms during seventies. At that time Pakistan unleashed its airpower and sent the fighters and the leaders into hiding in bordering southern Afghanistan. They have retuned since then and have taken up arms again for their independence.

Sui gas the only gas reserve and a marketable resource is located in Balochistan. The gas is piped to the Punjabi heartland with no benefits to them. They are bitter about it and constantly sabotage the pipeline. Recent outrage has killed 18 people. These incidents are not new but the world has just come to know about them. General Musharraf is threatening severe army action in the province. Situation is already out of control.

NWFP

Rudyard Kipling and exploits of a few British officers and Indian soldiers have romanticized this area. It is a lawless area where gun on the shoulders of a citizen dictates his status. British fought a running guerilla war with the local chieftains and never won. An average Pathan (Pashtun) is a cunning and brave soldier. He wants independence to perpetually misbehave. Anybody coming in his way becomes his enemy. British from 1867 to 1935 learnt this truth the hard way. Now, the Pakistani army in last three years is learning the same.

Osma Bin Laden is hiding in this area. Tribal loyalties, easy bribing and complete dislike for the Pakistani Army are keeping Osma in safety.

Pathans in fifties wished a Pakhtunistan and they joined up with Pashtun cousins on the other side of the Pakistan Afghan border. The movement failed as the Pakistani Army easily bribed the Pathans.

Pathans do not wish independence. They do not care about it. All they want is to be left alone to trade drugs and smuggle guns.

Kashmir Occupied by Pakistan

Kashmiris wish Pakistani Army out of their homeland. The Line of Control and Geography do not permit any outside help. Pakistani army at slightest hint of trouble unleashes hordes of Sunni Pathans on them. The present ruler of Pakistan, General Musharraf, while a brigadier in the army was entrusted the task of subduing Kashmiri in Pakistani Kashmir in late eighties. He did it with vigor. He killed all the troublemakers. No word of these atrocities has ever filtered out, because army controls all access to this area. People are followers of His Excellency Agha Khan. At times, even he is not permitted to visit the area or provide humanitarian help.

Given the opportunity, they will very willingly eject the Pathans and the Pakistani Army out and join with rest of Kashmir.

Punjab

This is the dominant component of Pakistani ethnic mix. It grows all the food and is home of prosperous cities like Lahore, Sialkote, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, and Islamabad. The population is Aryan people of Indus Valley Civilization and the Muslim invaders who settled in the land. This is a smart bunch, but misguided. They have been lead to believe that India is easily conquerable and stroll to Delhi is just a matter of time. It is a stable society, well fed and well clothed. Its culture is primarily Indian. Its habits, likes and tastes are same as in India. Recent visitors in last two years have confirmed cultural proximity of this province with India.

It provides most of the recruits for the army and Jihad. In return it extracts a huge price from the other provinces. It basically starves others of funds for development. Its geography in Pakistani context is full of advantages. All the rivers flow thru it before they reach Sindh. The latter is always at a disadvantage. This, the Sindhis do not like. River water disputes have escalated into full-scale verbal wars in last few years. A shooting match was very cleverly averted last year. But it is just a matter of time when serious trouble erupts again.

The Balochistan faces the same issues with Punjabis. Their natural resource (Gas) is being exploited without any benefits to them. In addition they are denied a home rule. To make the situation worst, army has been unleashed on them.

The NWFP has nowhere to go hence are not likely to raise slogans of independence. The Punjabis thru tribal chiefs run this province and will continue to dominate it for a long time to come.

Is Pakistan Ripe for Balkanization?

Yes, as it has failed economically and politically.

As soon as Sindh province readies its political mental to break free, the whole of Pakistani union will fall apart. This process could be further hastened if the generals in Rawalpindi decide to send the likes of Lt. Gen Tikka Khan (butcher of Bangladesh) to Balochistan to suppress the revolt. Pathan’s who have been used so successfully to suppress revolts elsewhere are useless as they face annihilation at the hands of tough Balochs. Jehadis elements in Pakistan will be ineffective as bulk of the insurgents supporting insurgency in Balochistan come from the Mosques. Ten years from now, the Balochs will bleed the Pakistani army white. A no win situation will occur, resulting in Pakistani Army withdrawal. With Balochistan out of the way, nationalist movements in Sindh will go the same way as Balochistan. They will demand independence. The port of Karachi with its ethnic mix will be the testing ground for all political and military muscle Pakistani Army has.

All this is happening, because Pakistan maintained a 58 years Kashmir centric focus. It robbed the people of economic and political stability, which increased the centrifugal forces to tear it apart. In the end, Pakistan may be a loose federation of provinces and army permanently sent to the barracks. It will be a shadow of what the founder envisioned Pakistan to be.

India and Rest of the World’s Gains

Any succession type of movement in Pakistan will have an impact on India. These are easily tamed with economic growth and plural political system capable of redressing people’s grievances. Moreover Indian voters remove even popular politicians from power from time to time. Democracy is a great institution and India thrives on it.

Major gains for India will be, peace in Kashmir. Pakistani army may even leave the occupied portion of Kashmir and free the Kashmiri people. ISI will be the first institution to be dismantled. New breed of leaders probably will put economics and nation building ahead of picking up fights in the neighborhood.

Trade may flow freely thru open corridor in Gujrat-Sindh- Rajasthan and East and West Punjab. Indian goods will have a shorter route to reach Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. Gas from Iran and Central Asia may flow freely to Karachi and India. Net gainers will be people of Pakistan with transit fees.

Additional gains for the US could be nabbing of Osma Bin Laden in a cave somewhere in Pakistan. Saudi and Mullah’s influence will be minimized. Jehadis will go back to their homes and become farmers or factory workers.

If this type of scenario unfolds, which it might, then the US influence in the area will increase, as trade will overtake military hardware shipment. IMF will be spared of rushing to Pakistan with a bag full of money. No Jehadis will be exported to the west. God willing, this is about to happen.

Hari Sud