By: Hari Sud
August 23, 2004

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Has Kerry delivered a knock out punch to President Bush for the upcoming elections? 

The answer is No. 

Senator John Kerry is a lack luster Democratic Party candidate, who after the recent Democratic convention and nomination should have surged ahead in opinion polls. It has not happened. Both candidates prior to the Republican Party Convention in a few weeks are running neck to neck in opinion polls. Any political pundit would expect that with Iraq War going badly, Osma Bin Laden still in a cave in Afghanistan and oil prices at $45 a barrel, the incumbent candidate to loose. This time around the odds are favoring the incumbent. Why? Because the Republican Party Convention in a few weeks will give the incumbent the usual boost and that may result in him surging ahead in opinion polls.  Whether this surge is retained till the voting day depends upon the upcoming TV debates and media fancy for the candidates. 

How Did Kerry reached the nomination process 

John Kerry lacks the TV charisma so important for capturing the hearts and minds of the people. He was not even a frontrunner until the John Dean campaign imploded during the primaries. Kerry’s views are a bit different from his opponent on tax cuts, war in Iraq and terrorism, health care etc. but not too far apart for the voting public to sit down and take notice. It is very much unlike John F Kennedy’s campaign in 1960, where he overwhelmed Richard M Nixon with personal charisma. It is unlike Bill Clinton’s campaign that coined the word “it is economy, stupid”. Ronald Reagan in 1984 caught his opponent by asking, “where is the beef”. In each case the catch phrase became the buzzword for winning the election. It is usual that the wartime leaders loose re-election. Winston Churchill lost it. Gerry Ford and Papa Bush lost it. Reasons are as basic as the bread and butter. Lot money gets spent on war, which directly affects the economy, which in turn results in lost jobs. The latter affects food on the table and people start voting their stomach instead of their head. This, combine it with $45 barrel oil and the on coming bear market & recession the incumbent is dead in the water. Provided the opponent can exploit the advantages.  

In this election scenario, these natural advantages are not flowing to the Democratic Party candidate. Reasons: personality and charisma.  

George Bush and his Election Campaign 

President Bush is doing badly on all fronts, which matter in the lection. He has practically no charisma and personality. His speechwriter deserves more credit than him on his stellar performance in the combined House and Senate opening speech in 2002 where he outlined steps to combat terror. The applause was deafening. The press and the electronic media cheered him all the way. That is where all his achievements ended. His legislative agenda is one sided i.e. favors the rich. In this case, both the legislative bodies pretty well voted on party lines to deliver the biggest tax benefits to the rich. This could not be called as his achievements. The Republicans Party precisely placed him in the Whitehouse to do that. Other legislative initiatives are pitiful. The defense expenditures, which Clinton controlled it so well, have ballooned with an unnecessary war in Iraq. The US international standing has diminished. The Bush Administration has lost Europe as an ally in World affairs but gained one ally in Pakistan to fight their war on terror. 

Hence why would people vote Bush again? 

It is very simple. The opponent is unable to light a fire in the hearts and mind of the people to vote for a change.  

In addition, very clever and orderly managed crowds depicted in Bush campaign stops compared to informal crowds at Kerry campaign stops gives Bush an edge. It is a reminder of Nixon V/s McGovern contest. Nixon won by a landslide. 

How is Media playing this Election Process? 

News reporters and news analysts in both print and electronic media are having a field day by reporting that both candidates are running neck-to-neck. Interpreted politically this analysis favors President Bush. With all the current woes, he is supposed to loose. Hence neck-to-neck status in opinion polls indicates a possible win for President Bush. That means continued war in Iraq, friendship with Pakistan with no results, dismayed European allies, high oil prices, rich paying low taxes, a mediocre reform in health care system and so on.  

Kerry has to court the media a bit more. His personal charisma has to be projected much more than his team has done so far. The battle ground states woes with the present administration are to be exploited a bit more. European allies are to be courted a lot more than he has indicated in his foreign policy statements. He has to clearly declare victory in Iraq and leave. Also, he has to indicate a hard line towards Pakistan and base all aid on catching Osma Bin Laden. Economically the oil prices are to be lowered somehow (do whatever President Reagan did to lower the oil prices), rich are to be taxed more by repealing the tax breaks given by President Bush.  

All the above done by Kerry camp will fire the media. He may become the darling of the newscasters and analysts.  

When will the knock out punch come? 

For Kerry this knock out punch has to come soon. Otherwise President Bush is set to win. This win is not a bad news. It is as good as any news coming out of America these days. Somewhat sputtering economy may get a new lease of life.  Saddam Hussein may finally face justice. Iraq and Afghanistan may hold elections. Once these changes happen, European allies may come around and start appreciating the US point of view.  

The crucial high point in the US elections is the TV debates. That is where either the candidate’s popularity surges ahead or the local issues start dominating the election process and gubernatorial elections become issues in the hearts and mind of the people. 

Finally this is an interesting election year in which candidate’s charisma (or lack of it) will play a big role. It is harder to dislodge a sitting candidate. It is only possible, if everything done by the sitting president in four years has gone wrong. As a matter of fact it has gone wrong. In-spite of that the sitting candidate has a good chance to win.

Hari Sud