By: Hari Sud
August 09, 2004

1. Background

Let us examine a scenario in which General Musharraf after 9/11 decides to support Taaliban and Al Qaeda instead of switching to the US. Had he switched to the Taaliban interests, he had reasons to do so. President Clinton had treated Pakistan very rudely by paying only a fleeting visit to Rawalpindi during his South Asian trip in 2000. The economic and military sanctions were still in place and Kashmir was as far away from Pakistani grasp as possible. Immediately after elections in US in 2000, President Bush had decided not to remove sanctions against Pakistan. Instead he was encouraging India’s business interests in BPO etc. Hence, Musharraf had good reasons to listen to his religious power base and stick with Taaliban. But a sane voice prevailed within Pakistani ruling Junta and they decided to dump Taaliban and became a US protégé.

People of Pakistan were perplexed. Their hurt feelings against USA ran very deep. Economic and military sanctions and denial of F-16s for 10 years had created anti-American sentiments in their mind. In addition Pakistan’s forced retreat from Kargil in 1999 broke the camel’s back. Hence, they could not understand, why Musharraf took only a few days (after receiving the initial phone call from Washington) to dump their carefully nurtured allies Taaliban and Al Qaeda. Religious parties had taken advantage of the hurt feelings and cleverly manipulated this sentiment. Five days after 9/11, the religious parties had given a general strike call to register their protest against upcoming invasion of Afghanistan. This had limited Musharaaf’s maneuvering room at home. This resulted in Taaliban and Al Qaeda retreating to Pakistan disguised as refugees.

It was a relief in India to hear Musharraf disown both Taaliban and Al Qaeda. He promised that he would not let them set up a house in friendly border region of Western Pakistan. India hoped that new Musharraf would also undo terrorism in Kashmir and withdraw Jehadis too. He lied to the teeth on all his promises. Taaliban and Al Qaeda found a hospitable Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). He allowed the kingpin of 9/11, Osma Bin Laaden, to elude capture. Whenever he visited Washington (to get the promised monies) he pulled a rabbit out of the hat by catching one or two lower level Al Qeada operatives. Washington each time showered him with gifts of money and military hardware. This situation became too hot for him to deny, when US planned a spring 2004 offensive in FATA and asked Musharraf to dislodge the terrorists and push them into the waiting hands of US troops. This operation backfired. He lost scores of soldiers in firefights with the terrorists and Osma Bin Laaden eluded capture again. Concurrently, with this failure US started to examine Pakistani role in the whole exercise of hiding Al Qaeda and Taaliban and its kingpins*. The following examines how Pakistan became a US ally, immediately after 9/11 attack. Also whether US has been duped in this exercise.

(*Benazir Bhutto the ex Pakistan’s Prime Minister recently expressed similar sentiments)

2. When the Twin Towers Fell in New York, Pakistanis Rejoiced

It was a joyous moment in Pakistan to hear that their man, Osma Bin Laaden had taught Washington a lesson. His achievements were gloated over and over again. Although the ruling circles in Pakistan perhaps were concerned a bit yet they allowed the Madarssa culture to celebrate. Below are a few headlines and comments from the Pakistani newspaper of the day:

The Dawn of Karachi on September 22, 2001 headlined

“ US rejects call for Evidence”. The newspaper further noted that Afghanistan would never hand over Osma Bin Laaden to US.

September 21, 2001 edition of the Dawn, the newspaper headlined “Religious parties call for strike today”. The news item stated that -

“The MYC*, which met here on Thursday with Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani in the chair, rejected the US instance involving Osama bin Laden in the terrorist attacks and demanded of the President of Pakistan not to facilitate US action against Afghanistan as the US has nefarious designs of getting a foothold on Pakistan soil to monitor its nuclear program and to carry out espionage activities against neighboring countries to make Pakistan suspicious in their eyes”.

(*MYC at that time was a co-ordinating body of all Jehadi organizations and consists of JUI, JA, PDP, PML(Qayyum and Nawaz) PPI, MRC, NAP, JIU, SAA, TI, MKP, NPP, MJUP and Islamic Forum).

The Jang Newspaper of Pakistan on September 12, in its editorial gloated –

"The enormity, precision planning, execution and effectiveness of the attack, unprecedented, as it naturally is, show how organized, well coordinated, methodical, determined and desperate the attackers were. In a span of a few minutes several commercial aircraft were hijacked from different places, sent to their designated targets and achieved destruction in human life and property on a scale which would probably never be matched. The attacks must provide an occasion for the United States establishment to pause and think whether the hardline they have adopted is proving to be counter-productive. …… If America was preparing and waiting for an Armageddon, it has now happened....

All other newspapers in Pakistan were reporting anti – American sentiments and demanding proof of Osma’s involvement. But they were not hiding their glee at the Osma’s success.

The above stated strike call was heeded. People came out in large numbers in every major city of Pakistan in support of Osma Bin Laaden. They carried posters with Anti- American sentiments.

3. What was that Mysterious meeting of ISI boss with US Congress leaders on the day Twin Towers fell?

On the August 30th, 2001, General Mahmoud Ahmad, head of the Pakistani Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) arrived in Washington on an official visit for consultations. During his visit to Washington, General Mahmoud met his counterpart, the CIA Director George Tenet and high-ranking officials of the Bush Administration. Then a breakfast meeting was arranged between General Mahmoud for September 11, 2001 with the congressional leaders. Three US lawmakers - Bob Graham, Porter Goss and Jon Kyl participated. Pakistani team included General Mahmoud and Maleeha Lodhi, the Pakistani Ambassador to Washington. The meeting mysteriously was set for September 11 and exactly at the time when hijacked planes were striking the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. Did General Mahmoud knew about the hijacking plan and wished to gloat over Osma’s success during the breakfast meeting? Or was it just a coincidence (we will never know). US knew that General Mahmoud was the terrorist’s moneyman. General Mahmoud also knew that US knows about his activities. He had earlier received a rebuke from the CIA Chief. What was discussed at breakfast meeting of September 11, is unknown. Maleeha Lodhi put out a press brief to express sorrow and anguish at the happening on September 11 (all part of the diplomacy in progress).

Surprisingly when General Mahmoud returned to Pakistan, he was sent as Musharraf’s man to request Taaliban Chief, Mullah Omar to hand over Osma Bin Laaden to US and prevent American occupation of Afghanistan. The latter would have resulted in loss of strategic depth to Pakistan. General Mahmoud during his meeting with Mullah Omar did the opposite and asked him not to hand over Osma Bin Laaden to the Americans. When this story broke, Musharraf was left with no choice but to cleverly transfer General Mahmoud to another job. It is unknown whether General Mahmoud was following Musharraf’s orders or acted for himself. In a military hierarchy it is difficult to believe that a trusted junior officer disobey orders and get off without a court martial. But it happened in Pakistan. Under the circumstances, it is difficult to know whether Musharraf is taking Americans for a ride or he really mean to dump terrorism as an instrument of state. At the moment it would appears that He is taking American money and is letting Osma Bin Laaden and Mullah Omar run freely out of sight of American press and investigators.

4. How Close Did Pakistan Came to Supporting Taaliban Instead of US

It was close enough to warrant a concern. General Musharraf is a Jehadi kind of general promoted by General Zia Ul Haq (Pakistani dictator 1978-89). His role in suppression of Shias of Pakistani Occupied Kashmir is well documented. In addition, he is a Mohajjar with Anti Indian tendencies. The latter, he displayed during Prime Minister’s Vajpayee’s visit to Lahore and during Kargil crisis. As soon as he assumed political as well as military power, he rationalized his views a bit. He toned down his anti American tendencies and struck friendship with General Zinni, then commander of US Central Command. His views on grabbing all of Kashmir did not change one bit. To this end he supported Taaliban because Pakistan needed a strategic depth & terrorist training area. Now, he portrays himself as a changed man with anti terrorist vision. But privately his Jehadism and his Wahabi training betrays that. His generals in various command and control are anti American and anti India. They love Jehadis and work to safeguarded their interests. General Aziz is the most notable among them and he is No 2 to General Musharraf. Other generals of the Jehadi culture are in high positions but are keeping mum. They value American military aid hence keep their mouth shut to achieve it.

In a nutshell there are four main props of Pakistan as a nation - Army, religious parties, Civil Service and the business elite. Although Army dominates all other but they are equally important. They all argued their own case after 9/11 e.g.

• Army wished free supply of arms from US in the wake of 9/11.

• The religious parties were against full support to the US. They demonstrated their power by holding large Anti US rallies. They wished return of Taaliban to Afghanistan.

• The Civil Service including diplomats and the educated elite who run the country’s infrastructure lead by Maleeha Lodi wished a whole-hearted support to the US.

• Business community was is in full support for US in return for economic aid.

The generals argued that US would come to Afghanistan anyway. Other Central Asian countries will provide them bases, if Pakistan refused. The above will put Pakistan in the fury of the storm. India is available anytime to US to support its ground and air operations. Any resistance to over flights to US invasion of Afghanistan would put Pakistani Army in a mortal danger. Musharraf won the argument. His generals decided to shut up. ISI was used to subdue the religious leaders. Very soon signal went to Washington that Pakistan has dumped Taaliban. In addition effort was made to hide the kingpins of 9/11 by catching the lower level operatives who had ventured into the Pakistani cities.

Now the question is – What would be the shape of things today in Afghanistan and Pakistan had Pakistan decided to support Taaliban instead of US. The follow up question is – under the circumstances, was invasion of Iraq possible. Let us examine this subject a bit more analytically.


5. Had Pakistan supported Mullah Omar in Afghanistan instead of US?

The shape of things would be:

1. Mullah Omar would have escaped to Pakistan and become Head of the State in exile with all its trappings instead of living in a cave.

2. Osma Bin Laaden would have become a guest of honor in Pakistan openly preaching Jehad against the Americans.

3. US would have asked for over flight rights for its planes from Diego Garcia on their way to Afghanistan after 9/11. Pakistan would have refused. US would have used it anyway. Depleted Pakistani Air Force would have been powerless to stop it.

4. Pakistan would have provided advance information of incoming US planes, but it would be of no avail, as Taaliban did not have capability to shoot them down.

5. Pakistani generals would have growled at US in their sleep. But awake, they would have not dared to oppose, otherwise they would be at the receiving end of the US wrath.

6. Pakistani Army personnel stationed in Afghanistan would have been captured and made POWs.

7. After the Afghanistan capture, US would have turned east to find the kingpins of 9/11 in FATA area.

8. US would have entered at will the FATA area to get the Al Qaeda and Taaliban kingpins.

9. US 6th Fleet would have anchored at Karachi and demanded the hand over of Mullah Omar and Osma Bin Laaden.

10. Nuclear-armed Pakistan would have given heartache to the US generals. Hence all Pakistani nuclear bombs would have been either captured or immobilized with precision strikes.

11. Jehadi generals would have organized guerilla resistance against incoming US troops. For this act, US would have completely immobilized Pakistani Army and Air Force. Its small navy would be sitting ducks and would have faced annihilation.

12. Tension with India would have reached new heights for supporting the US.

13. Explosive growth in terrorist’s crossing over to Kashmir and to India would have resulted in a War like situation with India. Since Pakistan’s nuclear weapons had been demobilized, it would have been an empty threat.

14. To permanently disarm Pakistan of its nuclear capability, US would have destroyed Kahuta Bomb factory and dismantled all the operating and under construction nuclear reactors.

15. Economy would have suffered greatly as all money transfers would have stopped. Pakistan would be unable to repair damage caused by US surgical strikes to its infrastructure.

16. In four weeks Pakistan would have relented and switched sides. As a result General Musharraf would have personally arrested Mullah Omar and Osma Bin Laaden and handed them over to US custody.

17. If Pakistan had not relented, the Jehadis would have gained the political power. The Jehadi generals would have gained the nuclear button (if not already destroyed) and Osma Bin Laaden today would have been nuclear armed. Hence destruction of Pakistani nuclear button would have been of utter importance.

18. The above would have been a very expensive operation for US, both in men and material. Invasion of Iraq would have been cancelled.

All the above did not happen because General Musharraf won the internal power struggle and switched to the US side earlier than later.

6. Benefits, which accrued to Pakistan?

Benefits to Pakistan have been immense.

• The Army has been refurbished with spare parts and new weapons.

• US turned a blind eye to the disclosures of Pakistani export of nuclear technology.

• They allowed Taaliban and Al Qaeda to setup house in border region of Pakistan, pretending not to know.

• A non-NATO ally status has been bestowed upon Pakistan.

• All the Jehadi generals have managed to survive and prosper.

• In Three years a total $ 3.0 Billion in direct cash remittance has been given to Pakistan. A lot of loans have been forgiven.

• Pakistani economy has turned around and expected to record 6% growth.

• Tension with India continues. Jehadis come to Kashmir when the snows melt, irrespective of all promises.

• Pakistan’s status in the Commonwealth and other organization has been restored.

• Political stability has returned. But angry Jehadis of Afghanistan have vowed a revenge for betrayal.

7. How long Will this Honeymoon Last?

This new found warmness between US and Pakistan since 9/11 is a major paradox of these times. On one hand President Bush brands Iran, Iraq and North Korea as “Axis of Evil”. On the other hand Pakistani strongman is welcomed at Camp David. US knew for a long time that Pakistan was the major perpetrator of spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction. It was Pakistan who supplied Libya, Iran with nuclear technology to build nuclear weapons. It was Pakistan who exchanged nuclear technology for missiles with North Korea. In spite of all this Pakistan has managed to stay away from the wrath of USA.

How?

They followed all the orders from Washington but ignored the spirit of the orders. When in spring of 2004, Pakistani Army was ordered to FATA, they obliged half-heartedly and got a bloody nose. Again when monies promised was held up in 2002 & 2003, Musharraf paid a visit to Washington and got a heroes welcome. All he did was to arrest a middle level Al Qaeda operative from Rawalpindi and use it as a prop to polish his image as anti-terrorist champion. Kingpins always escaped. In the coming US elections it is likely that another highly valued Al Qaeda target will be arrested. This will silence Pakistani critics in Washington.

8. Benefits to India

Pakistan in US camp is beneficial to India in more than one way. First, there will always be restraining American influence on Pakistan (Kargil 1999 and Post Indian Parliament Attack confrontation 2002). Second, US may have already gained location and control parameters of Pakistani bombs. In a confrontation, these bombs can be easily neutralized. With last winter’s disclosure of Pakistani nuclear scientists peddling nuclear technology, Pakistani science and technological developments are under a microscope. Hence more strict controls are likely.

All the above is beneficial to India. It is quite possible that nuclear button may have already slipped out of Pakistani control. The latter is the basis of current peace moves in the South Asia.

9. What will cause US to Dump Pakistan in the future

The following has to happen before US dumps Pakistan again:

a) Pakistani complicity is established in hiding Al Qaeda.

b) It continues to aid unstable nations with nuclear technology.

c) Its long-range nuclear missiles threaten Israel.

d) Fresh attacks on American soil are aided and abetted by ISI.

e) Madarssa culture is allowed to gain further foothold in the Pakistani Army and civil administration.

f) Mushaaraf is assassinated and a Jehadi general comes to power.

g) Economically, Pakistan collapses four culturally diverse states are formed.

All the above do not have to happen concurrently for US to dump Pakistan. Any one of them happening at the wrong time (like US Elections) could set off alarm bells ringing in Washington.

10. Conclusion

History of US friendship with Pakistan is about to be written a fresh starting from very early next year. The new administration or the continued old administration will refocus on the recurring threat of terrorism. This relationship will either prosper with Pakistan dumping every bit of Jehadi culture it has left in its midst or will be downgraded in light of continued Jehadism and non performance in catching Al Qaeda kingpins.

(The author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc. and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A graduate of Punjab University and University of Missouri; Rolla, USA, the author is a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager).

Hari Sud