August 08, 2004
Nuclear issue: Indian media is silent about it
End of The Indo-US Nuke Deal?
What If India-US Nuclear Deal Fails
USA"s nuclear design on India
Discord on Indo–US Nuclear Deal
Indo-US nuclear Deal and its consequences
N-Deal: Plan B if the Deal Fails
US Legislative Process: Indo-US N-Deal
N-deal: Economic, Political and
Indo-American Nuclear Pact - Rationales
India"s Nuclear Surrender to USA
P-6 and The Nuclear Truth Narayanan
India's Options to Pakistan's Nuclear Threat
Cost Pakistan Incurred to Build the Nuclear Bomb
Nuclear Black Market in Pakistan
Has America Gained Control of Their Nuclear Weapons?
Pakistan will no longer be a threat to India as soon as India puts its
nuclear weapons to sea and keeps them hidden from Pakistan’s first nuclear
strike. Then only the holder’s of Pakistani nuclear button will pause and
think whether the first strike is worth the return salvo awaiting them.
Until then overconfident Pakistanis will continue to brandish the nuclear
weapons at India at will. (Last time they brandished it was during the
No amount of India’s negotiation with Pakistan to solve the Kashmir or
terrorism issues will help. Over the past 54 years, anti Indian sentiments
in Pakistan have been carefully nurtured. These will not go away easily.
Pakistanis wish to rule from New Delhi and wish to return Muslim rule of
800 years to India. Mullah Omar of Taaliban advised the Muslims of
Pakistan to re-conquer India. These sentiments are not uncommon in the
Pakistani ruling circles. The latter express the same sentiments but a bit
diplomatically. For these reasons, Pakistan will keep the fight with India
always hot. Kashmir or Siachin or Sir Creek or Junagadh or Hyderabad are
issues of today. They will invent another bunch for to-morrow. Hence this
fight for the Muslim supremacy in South Asian continent will end only,
when they are made aware that they may cease to exist should they attempt
a first strike. For this to become a reality, India has to economically,
technologically and militarily become sufficiently advanced to build a
deterrent at sea.
Where does India Stands in Light of this threat?
Rulers of India from 1947 to 2001 never understood this threat. They
offered all possible carrots to buy peace with Pakistan. It did not work.
Nehru-Ayub tried in early sixties but failed. Under American pressure,
India signed the Indus Water Treaty, which guaranteed flow of four rivers
(Ravi, Chanaab, Jhelum and Indus) exclusively to Pakistan. India got
rights to only two rivers (Sutlej & Beas). This one sided treaty
guaranteed prosperity to Pakistani Punjab and kept Indian Punjab, Haryana
and Rajasthan short of water. During the1965 war, under pressure from US
and Soviet Union, India withdrew from Haji Pir Icchogill Canal, Khemkaran
and Gadara Town of Pakistan. The same powers could not prevail upon India
to relinquish East Pakistan (now independent Bangladesh) during the 1971
war. Upset Pakistan was appeased with arms and hardware. Shortly
thereafter the West found a new pretext to re-arm Pakistan i.e. defeating
Soviets in Afghanistan. Free supply of F-16s was made in addition to a
tacit approval to steal nuclear technology from the West. Pakistan took
full advantage of this from 1977 till 1989. This effort of theirs suffered
a setback when Pressler Law was passed in the US Congress. Economic and
military sanction imposed in 1990, which impoverished the country. But the
situation changed after 9/11 in 2001.
All the above developments were ignored in India partly due to the fact
that Indian economy was not in good shape and politically a weak
government was in-charge (1988-98). A new government took charge in 1998
and immediately tested its nuclear bomb. They knew that Pakistani bomb had
been ready since 1989. Hence testing by Pakistanis was just a formality.
It was Kargil of 1999 that India undertook a comprehensive defense policy
review. The latter resulted in more monies for upgrading India’s cash
starved defenses. Also improving economy has allowed India to spend more
on arms and technology.
Pakistani Nuclear Threat
This threat to India is very real. That is what the ex President Clinton
said in his recent book. In a CNN interview promoting his book, he listed
Pakistan – India nuclear war threat as one of the three most vexing issue
of the present time. Pakistan completed its stolen U-235 centrifuge in
1989. In 1995 the first batch of missiles from North Korea and China
arrived. The existing F-16 (although depleted with lack of spares) and
missiles added a big punch to Pakistan’s nuclear threat. The West was
still not convinced and allowed Pakistan to launch a terrorist campaign in
India and Kashmir after 1989. It was only with 9/11 in 2001 that the
overall subject of nuclear weapons in Pakistan and their possibility of
falling into terrorist hands became a hot issue. This could become even
hotter, if a Jehadi general or a Mullah takes over the reigns of power in
Pakistan and decides to black mail India, Israel and the West. The latter
has emerged as a big threat to the US interests.
Threat to the West
Osma Bin Laaden has vowed to acquire nuclear technology and unleash it on
the West. There is only one place he can get it i.e. Pakistan. The West is
in jeopardy on how to deal with this threat. In fact, this threat is much
worse than the threat of nuclear holocaust posed during the Cold War.
The West, as a matter of policy has decided to deal with this threat by
cozying up to Pakistan. They wish to stop the spread at the source. They
are a bit late in their realization. The present regime is vowing to safe
guard their nuclear weapons. But it is an empty gesture. They have already
traded their nuclear secrets with Libya, Iran and North Korea. Sharing
these secrets with Al Qaeda and others is a small matter for them. All it
need is a small spark in the international arena. Pakistan will very
willingly part with this technology and the West would be able to do
nothing about it. Even if Pakistanis keep these weapons safely, the
current policy of appeasements to Pakistan by the West are giving them
unlimited power over the West’s foreign policy in Asia and Middle East.
Threat to India
Pakistani nuclear threat to India is more real than to the West. They want
Kashmir to start with and Muslim rule in India their ultimate goal.
Nuclear weapons are instruments to achieve it. They will continue to try
and try again to achieve it. Small failures in 1965, 1971 and 1999 are
ignored. History speaks for itself. The Muslim influence in India did not
arrive in one day. They nibbled at India from Afghanistan from ninth
century onwards. Ghauri’s victory over Prithvi Raj Chauhan in Delhi in
1193 AD was second trial for Ghauri. Prior to that countless hordes used
Khyber Pass and Sindh coastline looking for weaknesses in the local rule
for loot and plunder. It took them 300 years to conquer rest of the
Gangetic plains all the way to Assam. Another two hundred years were taken
to conquer South India all the way to Mysore and Andhra Pradesh. The point
is that Muslim intentions are perfidious. Their disputes will always be
ongoing until the ultimate goal of rule over India is achieved. They are
preaching these concepts in Madarssas, where most of the Jehadi recruits
get education. Unwitting. western observers are sweet talked into
believing their good intentions and peaceful purposes. Reasons why
Pakistanis have not begun their conquest of India to-date, is that India
has much bigger nuclear weapons and a stronger economy to buy any military
hardware to kill the enemy. Still the Pakistanis believe that a sudden
first strike from a short distance will kill India’s nuclear forces and
lead them to victory. That is why, it is important to hide India’s nuclear
forces at sea, just as Soviets and US did during the Cold War of
US Perceptions about Pakistan
US have gone into a passive mode about Pakistan. A halfhearted role played
by Pakistan to catch Osma Bin Laaden is a big hit with US Administration.
Only recently (July 13, 2004) as reported by the Pakistani press,
President Bush has paid glowing tribute to General Musharraf for his role
in fighting terrorism. I believe something is wrong in the management of
US foreign policy towards Pakistan. Musharraf cleverly disguises his ill
intentions with occasional burst of activity, far away from where Osma Bin
Laaden is hiding.
US should, by now, know that Pakistanis would never help them catch Osma.
If the latter is ever caught, it will be by the Afghanis themselves. The
locals know the area and all his moves. They are in a better position to
catch him. At the moment they have a pique at the US for occupying their
country hence they will not help. US have to win local’s co-operation. US
troops will have to leave Afghanistan. Local warlords will have to be
bribed with money to win their co-operation. This may handover a temporary
victory to the Jehadis, but it is a good policy to trap Osma. The local
warlords do not like Osma except that they view Osma as a lesser of the
two evils (US and Arabs under Osma). In addition, US should vacate bases
occupied by them in Pakistan. These bases have not helped in the capture
of Al Qaeda. Prior to leaving Pakistan US must ensure that they know all
about Pakistani nuclear force, including its location, capabilities and
how to reach them in case of an imminent threat.
How did US Neutralized Soviet Nuclear threat?
A clever mix of economic, political and military strategy neutralized
Soviet threat during the Cold War. Economically the Soviets were kept
bundled up within their own unsophisticated production and consumption
cycle. Politically, all the satellite states of Soviet Union in Europe
were told to revolt against a decadent economic system. Militarily, US
decided to outspent Soviets on military and Star War weapons, forcing
Soviets to do the same. This resulted in unequal application of resources
to military. People’s welfare took the back seat. Within a few years
Soviets ran out of money. In addition US picked China to back stab them,
resulting in Soviets being doubly threatened both on the Eastern as well
as on the Western front. This resulted in Soviet Union’s collapse.
As this clever strategy was in progress, US put bulk of its nuclear
weapons into the sea. Nuclear Powered Ballistic Submarines with Polaris
and Trident missiles ensured that Soviets could never achieve nuclear
supremacy over US. Soviets tried to match this expense and lost the
competition. Prior to going to the sea, US kept its Strategic Air Command
in full alert, 24/7 for the second strike. This had limited effectiveness.
This concept was radically downsized with submarines carrying the bulk of
the nuclear weapons after 1980.
How India Should Neutralize Pakistani Nuclear Threat?
India can neutralize Pakistani nuclear threat by a mix of Military,
economic and political strategy pretty well the same way as US did.
Militarily, India is doing the right things today. It has doubled its
defense expenditures in four years. It’s Army, Air Force and Navy is
better equipped to deal with Pakistan today than four years back.
Additional induction of Phalcons, Submarines, Artillery and LCA etc. in
next few years will tilt the balance completely in India’s favor. Pakistan
knows about it, hence is concentrating on upgrading its nuclear weapons
and missiles. They are so confident about their missiles and nuclear
weapons that they feel that they can destroy India’s nuclear weapons and
other nuclear establishments in a first strike. It could be true as the
flight time for a nuclear-armed missile and F-16 planes to Indian targets
is less than 7 minutes. This leaves no time for India to activate its
defenses against incoming missiles. It is the return salvo India has to
plan for. This salvo will have to be well protected and large enough to
annihilate the enemy.
Indian planners know about it, hence have planned like US and are busy
putting some of the strategic nuclear weapons to sea. India is trying hard
to build a vessel to dive deep in the sea with firepower to strike back
with devastation unimaginable by the Pakistanis. This Indian strategy is
also known to the Americans, hence they have done everything to prevent
India from acquiring a deep sea diving submarine. Once India overcomes the
technological problems with its own endeavor, and then only Pakistani
strategy of brandishing nuclear weapons at India will be contained.
Economically, today is the best environment to deal with Pakistan’s
nuclear threat. India is making economic strides after a lapse of 45
years. Its GNP has reached $600 Billion. Its defense expenditure has
doubled from $7 Billion in 1999 to $16.5 Billion in 2004-05. Most of the
additional expenditures are going into new military equipment purchases.
In next 10 years India’s defense expenditure would reach $35-40 Billion.
At that time Pakistan will be no match – militarily or economically.
It is to India’s advantage to draw Pakistan into an arms race. Their
economy has to be ruined so that it could not support a militaristic
Pakistan is much more culturally diverse country than India. In India the
progressive economy keeps the diverse cultures together. In Pakistan, the
arms race may deal a deathblow to their economy and their statehood.
Diversity of culture will fragment them internally. River water fight
between Sindh and Punjab is an issue that needs to be exploited. There is
already a great debate in Sindh and Balochistan provinces to separate from
the Pakistani union. The North West Frontier has effectively never been a
part of Pakistan. That leaves the prosperous heartland of Punjab
completely landlocked and at India’s mercy.
Hence, the arms race in South Asia will do exactly the same what arms race
did to the Soviet Union during the Cold war.
To end the stand off in South Asia, India has to make it difficult for
Pakistan to contemplate first strike nuclear capability. The return salvo
has to be hidden at sea to annihilate the enemy. Current overconfidence in
Pakistan to finish India’s nuclear force on the ground has to be dealt
with appropriately. US intervention is not required. Pakistan is to be
allowed to collapse under the weight of military expenditures to match
India. US can help by withdrawing from Pakistan and Afghanistan as soon as
possible. Osma Bin Laaden will not be caught by American or Pakistani
troops but by Afghanis, once they are convinced that US is not an occupier
of their country.
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