All surveys predict BJP to increase its tally from the present 179 to somewhere above 190, largely due to the bonus from Karnataka, and its ruling states. The Advani Bharat Uday Yatra may have had some effect, but the Vajpayee wave has been the major driving force of the BJP. Vajpayee has been like the Gandheev of Arjun for the NDA political machinery. Venkaiah’s ad-lib had summed this up perfectly at the start of BJP’s election campaign: Development, Development, Speedy Development; and Vajpayee, Vajpayee, Vajpayee. 

It is not just about Vajpayee, though. It’s about Vajpayee vs. The Gandhis. Since 15 August, 1947, no other non-Congress politician except Vajpayee has been able to convincingly rise above this “Gandhi charisma” that our country has been trained to idolize. But even for him, it was possible largely due to the foreign-origin tag plaguing Sonia Gandhi’s image. Had it not been for Sonia Gandhi, the NDA wouldn’t have ever formed, Sangma and Pawar would have not defected from the Congress and the TDP wouldn’t have supported the BJP. In toto, the NDA wouldn’t have been born, and Vajpayee would still have been the leader of opposition. But this thought shouldn’t bother him now, now that these elections will be his last. 

But, 5 years down the line, with Vajpayee not in the political picture, can the BJP still take on the Gandhis? It would be extremely premature, but still logical to predict Priyanka contesting the next general elections in 2009. Though Rahul Gandhi, at this stage, may not seem an imminent hazard, even Pramod Mahajan had once indirectly implied of the Gandhi kins being a serious threat to the NDA. Of course, he must have expected Priyanka entering the Parliament through Amethi to learn the tricks and trades of Parliamentary Democracy for the next 5 years. But it turned out to be the mysterious Rahul instead. Considering a hypothetical situation in which Sonia leaves her bunch to her siblings, it would be a Herculean endeavor for the BJP to combat that force. Naidu should offer annaprasadams to Sri Venkateswara to make sure that Sonia ka Haath does not go Uske Bachchon ke Saath. 

On the upside, the biggest strength of the BJP is its association with the RSS. The RSS is one of the largest movements the nation has ever seen. With the Sangh Parivar having over 35 direct organizational members, hundreds of secondary sister organizations, activities in about 40 countries across the globe, and a presence in each and every state in India except Mizoram and the Kashmir valley, the BJP cannot have a dearth of “capable” leaders. Today, there are a few thousand full-timers working for different Sangh Parivar organizations, a couple of hundred for ABVP, the RSS-student wing, which has historically been the largest supplier of leaders to the BJP. The current BJP second line emerged from the ABVP cadre after the 1976 anti-emergency struggle. Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Pramod Mahajan, Anantha Kumar, Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh have all been ABVP student activists, who later shifted to the BJP. 

Today, the BJP is firmly standing on the foundation created by old-timers like Vajpayee, Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi. These, in turn, had been strongly influenced by RSS ideologues like Dr. Golvilkar and Deendayal Upadhyay. The party, till recently, has been known to be a “party with a difference” because of its moral high ground and discipline. Can the Second generation maintain the party ideology? 

After Vajpayee, who, is the big question today. Sonia Gandhi enjoys a popularity that swings between 20-30% as against Vajpayee’s strong 60%. Advani, over the years, hasn’t been much popular, having only 2-5% believers in his capability to lead the nation. People have even favoured Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh Yadav over him. But one could think of his low percentage as being a comparison between him and Vajpayee, where he would definitely lose. Anyways, it would be an uphill task for the BJP to restructure Advani’s image. Of all the things that have destroyed his image are his 1990 Rath Yatra and his presence during the Babri Masjid demolition, ghosts that never can really go away. But still, for atleast the next 5 years, after Vajpayee, he is the best bet. He would himself retire from active politics after being an octogenarian. 

Venkaiah Naidu and Pramod Mahajan are the next 2 big names in BJP today. However, Venkaiah has never ever contested a Lok Sabha election before. Though his penchant for rhythmic quips and repetitive puns has entertained the media-persons all these months, his ability to lead a coalition still is questionable, assuming coalition-politics is here to stay. After all, who knew of Venkaiah Naidu before he became the Party President? He may have been the “frequent flyer” of the BJP, and may have first-class organizational abilities, but managing 20 odd parties is a different ball game altogether.  

Those apathetic towards politics believe in this wise saying, “Politics is derived from two words; ‘Poly’ meaning ‘many’ and ‘ticks’ meaning ‘blood sucking parasites’. Coalition politics brings together ticks from far and wide, of different evolutionary histories and physiological contents. Managing a circus like this demands a towering personality like Vajpayee, or to some extent, Advani. There are bigger giants than Venkaiah in the 20 odd NDA constituents. How would he deal with sharks like Jayalalitha and Mamata? It would be an amusing, rather than a nail-wrenching event. 

Pramod Mahajan has also been a long-time stalwart of the BJP. Over the past few years, he lost from his NE Mumbai Constituency, had his image tarnished by an “abuse” charge, had his ministry taken away, and had to be shifted to the “party” management. In his favor, however, the BJP carved a spectacular win in Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh. PowerPoint presentations, micromanagement of seats have become the buzzwords of the political campus. He may be a good poll strategist, but again, the common man beyond Maharashtra and Delhi may hardly have heard of him. What he does in the next 5 years, and how the party leadership supports him, will carve out his role on 2009.  

Arun Jaitley would definitely be out of the battle because of his strong urban, modern look, something which 80% of the Indian populace can’t identify with. But he definitely will remain the highly prized possession of the BJP, because of the love the media has for him, and his uncanny ability to make the media love him. His recent performance at Cancun WTO conference has earned him laurels not just from political, but also from the economic lobby. Arun Jaitley is definitely here to stay, but he definitely can’t be the next “Face of the BJP”.  

There are a few distinct features that the Indian voter looks for in a leader to elevate him to a commanding national position, apart from dynastic considerations. The foremost is acceptability to the diverse groups residing on the Indian soil. Vajpayee has a popularity even in Mizoram, just as in Ladakh and Kashmir, in Muslims and Christians, as much as in Hindus. Boyish faces, inability to deal with Heads of other nations, incompetence in administration don’t matter for Prime-Ministerial candidates in the Indian political scenario. The other feature is wittiness and sharpness, which is especially savoured by the media, and the urban class, the former being in a position today to make or break empires. Top BJP leaders like Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley are seen to be consciously avoiding as far as possible controversial statements or actions on issues of minorities, because it could bring down their media-image, on par with Katiyars and Modis. Another interesting observation is this. The Indian is awed to see the humane face of politicians, may it be a quality like strength, that propagated Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastry, or compassion and love, exuberated by the boyish Rajeevian face, or the artistic side, that strengthened Vajpayee’s position, and weakened Advani’s. The reason why Sonia fails and Priyanka scores is precisely because of this. Sonia falls in EQ, Priyanka flies high. 

The EQ factor is strong with Sushma Swaraj, the Dark Horse of the BJP from Haryana. There seems to be a certain enigma surrounding her, questions as to why she isn’t being used in the BJP campaign linger. Whereas this could very well be because of the strong political ambitions of her comrades Mahajan and Naidu, the advantage of her presence to the BJP cannot be denied. An opinion poll a few months ago showed her being favorably looked to as a prime-ministerial candidate, and being rightly packaged, the Swaraj trick might even put the BJP back in the battle-field post Vajpayee and Advani. She has the “Indian” look, and the leadership qualities. The Indian voter looks with veneration towards a woman leading a band of men. This trick has definitely worked for Mayawati and Jayalalitha and Uma Bharati. It worked for Indira Gandhi. It is going to work for Priyanka. It could very well work for Swaraj, and hopefully for the BJP too. 

I dare not mention the names of Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Vinay Katiyar, or for that matter Suresh Oberoi, Kumar Sanu, Yukta Mookhey and Rajnikanth. Well, but who knows. As they say, “Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects”.  

After all this, it is difficult to forecast the dawn of the new leader for the BJP 10 years down the line, after Vajpayee and Advani. Whoever it is, it would be impossible for the BJP to repeat the same performance of 1999 again. There are chances that the BJP might get cornered into states that have been traditionally been its stronghold, like Gujarat and Rajasthan and UP. But with other parties like the BSP, the NCP making inroads into these terrains, the impending rise in Congress’s strength, and the probable disintegration of the NDA post Vajpayee and Advani, it would be a tough battle for the BJP then. It might even face the danger of being turned into a regional party, as opposed to its national presence today. And that is precisely the reason why none of the top BJP people are contesting polls this time. Because they are aware of the odds stacked against them in 2009. If nothing is done in these 5 years, BJP can get extinct.  

On the other hand, for the Congress, it can never be the end of the battle. Though it has an absolutely zero 2^nd rung of leaders, none of the BJP’s 2^nd Generation has a wide acceptability. Compare that to the Congress’s Gandhi, who can be catapulted into national limelight and acceptance in just a couple of days. The biggest strength of the Congress precisely this; its continuous supply of people with the surname “Gandhi”. Indira, Sanjay, Rajeev, Sonia, Priyanka and Rahul. Tomorrow, Rahul might wed his Colombian girlfriend, who will then become a Gandhi and sit on the throne of Delhi. But the BJP won’t have any kins of Vajpayee as charismatically-packaged as the Gandhis, with cabalistic Harvard associations or Pitroda-awarded pastiche opinions. No points for guessing who has already won the war !!!

Gaurav Moghe