By: Hari Sud
harisud@hotmail.com
February 12, 2004

Nuclear Proliferation Lobby within the US State Department has lost its purpose and focus with the recent disclosures of Pakistan’s illicit trade in Nuclear weapons. Charging and then pardoning Dr. Nuke in Pakistan (Abdul Qadeer Khan) is a ruse, which only US State Department can accept.  These deadly lies, emanating from Pakistan by the word of its General, turned President Musharraf has unnerved the world. Even the US media is a bit less supportive of the US policy directed by its State Department Mandarins (lead by Collin Powell).  I believe that it has been a good intentioned policy of successive State Department bosses prior to Powell, of supporting Pakistan to come out of the middle ages. But it has let Pakistan get away with practically everything they wish to destabilize South Asia and the world with sale of nuclear technology to the highest bidder.  

Below, in my analysis, I examine as how the Nuclear Proliferation Lobby has misled the US Presidents by their scholarly discourses on principle but less on substance by equating rogue Pakistan with decent India.  If the situation is out of hand as regards Pakistan’s illicit nuclear sales, it is the politicians who will pay the political price. It is now evident in this election year in US that spread of nuclear weapons to belligerent dictators is likely to become an election issue. 

What Constitutes the Nuclear Proliferation Lobby? 

US State department is confusingly organized. It has cross-functional organization where one head or director of a department/bureau, may be able to exercise influence without any regard to changing political and international climate. On a minor principle of little value, a “directorate or a bureau” could withhold technology transfer license to a friendly country where diplomacy dictates greater cooperation in the near and distant future. On the other hand a rogue state may get away with practically stealing, trading, black marketing etc. Example of this policy in recent years is India where US State Department honchos are withholding licenses of lower end technology transfer because India has not signed Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and example of the later is Pakistan where spread of Nuclear Technology to Libya, North Korea and Iran is being swept under the rug.  

The State Department has a multitude of bureaucracy of which Nuclear Proliferation Lobby is a part. The former has an Under Secretary of Arms Control & International Security, to whom Bureau of Arms Control, Bureau of Non Proliferation, Bureau of Arms Control report. The Under Secretary reports to the Deputy Secretary who reports to the Secretary of State. In addition, a department named “Policy Planning Staff” headed by a strong headed but scholarly Mitchell Reiss directs its activities. Mr. Reiss reports to the Deputy Secretary.  In case of India and Pakistan there is a Bureau of South Asian Affairs, which intercedes on all matters relating to these countries. To top it all, there is also a Bureau to License Technology Transfer, a Human Rights Watch Bureau and Intelligence and Research Bureau. This is just a small component of the whole bureaucratic setup. Trust me there is lot more than above. They mostly work for cross-purposes except directed to close their ranks by a higher authority. 

Confusing, wait until I detail you about the Think Tanks which are directly supported by the bureaucrats in the State Department. 

A multitude of think tanks, all staffed by ex politicians looking for work after the expiry of their terms of office, forms the core of advisory groups. Leading among these institutes are: 

a)       Joe Wolfsthal – Arms Control Expert at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

b)       Paul Robinson – Director of Sandra National Labs 

c)       Teresita Schaffer – Center For Strategic International studies (CSIS) 

d)       Stephen Cohen – Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution 

e)       Selig Harrison – Director of International Policy in Washington. 

f)         Rand Corporation, Georgetown etc. 

g)       A huge number of ex politicians and bureaucrats like Roby Raphael (anti Indian former Assistant Secretary), ex Clinton and Reagan officials etc. 

h)       Multilateral Groups which have been created at the instance this lobby like “The Nuclear Supplier’s Group”, “Zangger Committee”, “Missile Technology Control Group”, “Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies” etc. 

No wonder nothing ever gets done in the US foreign policy other than fighting wars at the instance of Pentagon. A few times the National Security Advisor may force feed some policy changes but these changes are rare.  So sickening is this bureaucracy that a year back 1500 Foreign Service Officers signed a letter to Colin Powell, stating that the US State Department is dysfunctional with numerous layers of approvals upon approvals for sign-off. They sited examples of different departments working against the stated objectives. They wanted changes. But the department heads that wished to maintain their influence preferred status quo. 

These lobby groups ranging from Think Tanks to diplomats of various countries in Washington with their paid lobbyists work hard to get inside track of the policy by befriending bureau chiefs or Think Tank scholars. Famous among these incidents, is friendly relations, which Pakistani Ambassador to US, Maleeha Lodi developed with Robyn Rapheal (Assistant Secretary for South Asian Affairs) in late nineties to the detriment of India. Later Robyn Rapheal was not invited to continue during the second term of Clinton administration. 

Pakistan’s Nuclear Proliferation Disclosures and This Lobby 

When General Musharraf, Pakistani strongman let the world know that they have been proliferating nuclear technology to rogue states, this lobby although to some extent aware of these dealings, went into overdrive to justify its existence. Mitchell Reiss and Jon Wolfsthal tried to equate Pakistani rogue behavior with India’s responsible attitude in their famous thesis – let US strip India of all Nuclear Weapons, while Pakistan is under the microscope. Stephen Cohen although a bit moderate, is a proponent of Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. He is simply at loss for words when Pakistani disclosures came about. Richard Armitage the tough talking Deputy Secretary at the State Department simply brushed aside an idea of international enquiry of Pakistan’s nuclear dealings. He preferred to believe General Musharraf version that it is the rogue scientist who did it all while the notorious and ever present Pakistani military machine and its intelligence – ISI, simply watched it happen. This is Nuclear Proliferation Lobby at its best.  It works to penalize the good guys and court the rogues.  

This Lobby Group Hurt India’s Interest 

US State Department is an obstacle to US – India relations. Its attitude towards India is of distrust. Its stalling tactics are exemplary. Whereas Pentagon believes in considering India as a strategic partner in South and South East Asia from Suez to Singapore, the State department loves to brand India as a possible dangerous nuclear proliferater (no reasons assigned; only a thesis). Where as the Whitehouse, as propounded by the National Security Advisor, views India as strategic partner, State Department loves to contest it by complex multi-layered approvals, read in between the lines stalling or out right denials tactics. It was a miracle that President Bush while on his recent trip to Mexico announced an expanded technical collaboration agreement to transfer dual use technology to India, State Department Mandarins are getting their daggers ready. It is at the instance of the Whitehouse and Pentagon that US defense sales have gone up from zero to $200 million in three years. India loves to diversify its defense hardware procurement sources. It is totally dependent on Russia, but is trying hard to diversify to Israel, UK and others. US defense contractors are wishing to participate, but are unable to achieve a major break thru without the State Department at their side. 

So cumbersome and unpleasant is the State Department working that A US Ambassador to India resigned recently before his term. He could not deal with day-to-day sniping at policy changes he was implementing in Indo – US relations. 

To be Fair, Good Work Done by State Department for India 

How could anybody forget help provided by likes of Collin Powell, Richard Armitage etc. in controlling the dangerous situation which existed on India-Pak border when Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian Parliament in December of 2001. It was Collin Powell and Richard Armitage who handled the situation right.  This department was also instrumental in establishing the framework of yet to be implemented strategic partnership between India and US during Strobe Talbott meetings with India’s Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh. India also has to thank US State Department indirectly for not excessively interfering in the BPO outsourcing to India and keeping the HI-B and L-1 Visa regime in good working order. There is other numerous examples of thanks due for good work done by the State Department Mandarins. 

International Atomic Energy Agency and State Department’s Nuclear Lobby 

IAEA is a forum of intergovernmental scientific and technical co-operation but at US behest it acts as a nuclear watchdog of the world. In addition to the excellent work it had done to keep the world safe from nuclear disasters and proliferation, it is another US State Department Lobby’s tool to intimidate other aspiring UN member states, with inspections, inventory of fissile material, safeguards etc. Where the State Department Mandarins cannot act directly thru pressure diplomacy they send inspectors from IAEA. Iran & Libya recently received the inspectors, North Korea received them also and before long Pakistan will receive them. After that, pressure will be mounted on India to follow close behind. It is the Nuclear Lobby’s role to create a scare or a diplomatic situation where the erring state faces either sanctions or gives into the IAEA demands (read in between the lines, US demands). It is the US view that only 5 States in the world namely US, Russia, UK, France and China should have nuclear weapons. Nobody else is allowed to breach this monopoly. India, Pakistan breached this monopoly in 1998 and earned the ire of the monopoly states.  

Existence of this watchdog is a good idea, as long as it can prevent proliferation of nuclear technology. It miserably failed in Pakistan and it is likely to fail again when Israel or another country announces their intention to go nuclear. Summarily, it can pressure the law-abiding states but can do nothing to rogue states and scientists from exchanging nuclear technology. 

Is It High time to Disband This Lobby? 

Yes, now is the time to disband this lobby. Start with reducing the multitude of cross-functioning bureaus within the State Department. The remaining bureaucrats should learn to distinguish between friend and foe. Re-organize the State Department by flattening its organizational structure and responsibility. Remove the ever-difficult approval and sign-off process. Make it a responsive to the changing international environment. Do away with these all-powerful Think Tanks. Remove the very scholarly but misplaced politicians who inside and outside the government follow their specific agenda as opposed to implementing the will of elected Administration. 

Conclusion 

It is my educated opinion that India – US relations would have prospered far more than they have prospered in last five years, had this Nuclear Proliferation Lobby not interfered.  For India – US relations, the recently signed technical collaboration agreement to share civilian nuclear activities, high-tech trade etc. should scale new heights in the spirit of strategic co-operation. India and US has a common enemy in terrorism and sooner or later China will pose a challenge to US hegemony. Then India is the only reliable counterweight.

Hari Sud

(The author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc. and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A graduate of Punjab University and University of Missouri; Rolla, USA, the author is a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. The Views expressed are his own. email- harisud@hotmail.com)