By: Hari Sud
harisud@hotmail.com
January 16, 2004

The current impasse in Indo-Pak relations has been broken. The recently concluded SAARC meeting in Pakistan initiated the process. Starting in February 2004, the two countries have decided to start to talk to each other again. Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) undertaken in last one year by both the countries helped the process. In fact CBMs and other forms of indirect diplomacy has been in the works, starting with Vajpayee’s offer to treat a Pakistani child in an Indian hospital, visits of several Pakistani and Indian delegation to each other’s countries etc. Also the Americans have been doing their quite diplomacy behind the scene directly with the Pakistani strongman General and soon to be off the uniform Pervez Musharraf.  

What brought the two sides together in January? 

• Revelation that Pakistan has helped Iran and Libya in its nuclear weapons quest
• Two assassination attempts on General Musharraf’s life, although the first attempt appears to be a set-up job to gain American sympathy.
• General’s realization that Pakistan under perpetual military rule has fallen far behind India both economically and militarily.
• America will not resume huge military as well as economic aid to Pakistan until the Jehadism is brought under control.

During the SAARC, Vajpayee met Musharraf as well as the rubber stamp Prime Minister Jamali and broke the ice (on January 6-7). Then the Foreign Minister of India announced and subsequently confirmed by the Foreign Office of Pakistan that India and Pakistan will resume direct talks in February. In return, General Musharraf promised to talk to the terrorists in Kashmir for a ceasefire (the guns on LOC are already silent). These talks and other initiatives may pave the way for an ultimate settlement of all the Indo-Pak issues including Kashmir.

The hawkish elements in Pakistan did not take these developments kindly. They have built a career out Indo-Pak impasse hence will do anything to undue what has been termed as a development of historic significance all over the world.

Who are these people on both side of the border? 

1. The Pakistani Foreign Office.

2. Jehadi Generals in The Pakistani Army and ISI

3. Assassination squads to get rid of General Musharraf

4. Right Wing elements in the ruling BJP Party in India.

5. Slighted politician like Banazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharrif

The Pakistani Foreign Office 

For the last 50 years this policy-making bureaucracy in Pakistan has been staffed by hawkish elements of the Pakistani elite. They are well educated abroad and have connections both inside and outside of the country. Some of them are children of the immigrants from India and hate India to the core. Their TV image is excellent. They speak well to the Western media and generally maintain good connections with the ruling military elite. To some extent they play a crucial role to sabotage all reconciliation attempts. Hence they are powerful.   

When Vajpayee and Musharraf negotiated the modalities of their one to one meeting and established basis for further talks in coming months, Musharraf kept the Pakistani Foreign Office on the sidelines. All negotiations were conducted directly by the Vajpayee’s National Security Advisor, Brijesh Mishra and General Musharraf’s point man Tariq Aziz. The Pakistani Foreign Office found itself at the receiving end of the instructions.  

They do not like this all and will work to sabotage all and any peace process. 

Jehadi Generals in the Pakistani Army and the ISI 

Off all the elite in Pakistan, this element feels that Musharraf has completely surrendered to the American interest. They did not like his abandoning of Talibaan and Al Qaeda two years back. They hate ditching the Kashmiri terrorists now. Today they form the ruling click of the army. Their life and career is built on military confrontation with India. The worst of all, they are too many of them in the army. General Jia UL Haq in the eighties promoted officers in the army on the basis of their religious extremism. Today they occupy quite a few important jobs both in the Army and ISI. Unlike the Foreign Office they are unseen in the West and their images do not flash on the Western TV screens. Never the less these men form the most dangerous group standing in the way of any reconciliation with India i.e. if Pakistan reconciles with India, their jobs become unnecessary.  

It is simply not possible to get rid of them all. Hence they stay as a factor, which could sabotage the Indo – Pak peace process. 

Assassination of General Musharraf 

Two attempts on his life have been unsuccessful. Who knows, the future attempts may succeed. The new military general who will succeed General Musharraf may not like the peace process above and may decide to end it. That will throw the American diplomacy and Vajpayee’s efforts back to square one. This possibility has scarred the American State Department a lot. They have now woken up to examine a new scenarios – after Musharraf, Who? 

There is a coterie of generals who would wish to succeed him. But are they acceptable to US? At this moment four Pakistani military bases are under American control and a huge amount of US dollars are in the economic pipeline, this scenario is the worst for the US. Out of four generals likely to succeed Musharraf in the event of his assassination, three have Talibaan, Al Qaeda connections. That will make going for America in Pakistan, a bit difficult. 

It would appear now that America has no control over events unfolding in Pakistan. The Talibaan and Al Qaeda have, it appears, combined their forces with local Jehadis to remove Musharraf from power. They will keep on trying until they succeed. If this happens, Pakistan will sink into chaos. Americans will be ejected out of its military presence in Pakistan and war with India will become a certainty. 

Right Wing Elements in the Ruling BJP in India 

Prime Minister Vajpayee has kept this group of politicians at bay in Indo-Pak affairs. But its strength cannot be under estimated. They are nationalists and love the Hindutava ideals. In an election year in India these people carry greater than usual power, because they control the party cadre. They can throw roadblocks at every step of the settlement process and claim it as people’s will.  

There is only one good way to neutralize them i.e. economic prosperity. Right now the economic conditions in India are better, which make their roadblocks less effective. Also these people wish to stay in power and elections are coming early, hence to this end they have to head Vajpayee’s advice.  

Slighted Politicians like Benazir and Nawaz Sharrif in Pakistan 

These two former prime ministers who live outside the country but lead political parties inside Pakistan are a small factor in present day Pakistan’s political landscape. Benazir is talking sweet these days in order to get back into Pakistan. Her recent trip to India to attend an international seminar was designed to sweet talk Indian public opinion. These days her capability as a mischief-maker has been lessened by the US support to General Musharraf. But she could claim that settlement with India is a sell out of Pakistan by the military rulers. She did the same when India occupied Siachen in 1986. At that time to to make life uncomfortable to the then military ruler of Pakistan, General Jia Ul Haq, she had claimed that loss of Siachen as loss of Pakistan’s vital interest in Kashmir and blamed the debacle on the ruling general.  Don’t forget that it was Benazir, who went to North Korea when she was the prime minister and paved the way for ultimate exchange of nuclear technology to missiles by Pakistan two years later. Her current sweet talk is basically designed for the Western media to keep her in the news and convince the Indian politicians that they should negotiate with her instead of the general. 

Nawaz Sharrif is a spent force. He is neither a favorite of the West nor favored at home. All he wants from the present rulers is permission to go home and continue with his business activities. 

Religious party leaders are Pakistani Army’s creation. They are not likely to be a problem for them to deal with.   

In the end, there are too many factors, which could spoil this party. Let us hope they do not. Let us hope that the background diplomacy in which America played a key role, keeps Pakistan in line. Let us hope that Vajpayee offers Pakistan peace, which they cannot refuse. Let us hope that all Jehadis in Pakistan become regular citizens and copy India & China and work towards the economic progress of Pakistan. Alternative scenario of perpetual state of war is bad for the subcontinent and worst for the people of Pakistan. 

(The author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc. and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A graduate of Punjab University and University of Missouri; Rolla, USA, the author is a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager)

Hari Sud