By: Hari Sud
harisud@hotmail.com
January 08, 2004

Pakistani strongman General Musharraf these days is appearing very decent and sweet towards India. The other day he offered even to side track the UN Security Council resolution, if it helps in the settlement of the Kashmir dispute. All this began in early December when he pulled a rabbit out of the hat and ordered a ceasefire along the Line of Actual Control in Kashmir (read in between the line – no infiltration along the LOC). This started the ball rolling towards a possible meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Vajpayee during the SAARC meet. Even the Indian Prime Minister hailed it as a breakthrough and called this development - a result of huge amount of pressure on General Musharraf by India and US, UK & rest of the international community.  Unknown to Vajpayee, Iran had at that time told the International Atomic Energy Agency that design of the Uranium-235 Centrifuge was given to them by the Pakistani Chief of the Atomic Energy in mid eighties. Other technical help continued to Iran in a clandestine manner to hoodwink the world opinion. If discovered Pakistani successive administration since 1985 had devised a scheme of deception by calling the transfer of technology as a private enterprise of rogue scientists. Even the American did not know about it. They probably were as surprised as Mr. Vajpayee was, hence quite a bit of uproar ensued in the security circles in Europe and US.

Pakistani army has for long been branded as a rogue army for its involvement with Taliban and Osma Bin Laaden. In last two years General Musharraf has turned the matter around and has even managed to get himself wined and dined by President Bush in return for support to catch Osma Bin Laaden and Al Qaeda. The latter has partially happened. Some key operatives have been caught but the main fish keeps eluding the US, presumably with clandestine Pakistani help. This time in the matter of transfer of nuclear technology to Iran, Pakistan has been caught with its hand in a cookie jar. Various news organizations have curtailed their comments on Pakistan and its army at the behest of the US State Department, but still questions about spread of nuclear technology to Al Qeada, even in its crude state, has not escaped the media attention.  

To salvage the Pakistan’s image, which has been battered with the Iranian disclosure, General Musharraf immediately decided to honor all commitments, which he had made but never put them into practice. These include: 

·         ISI run terrorist camps in the Pakistani Occupied Kashmir were closed in full view of India. 

·         ISI department responsible for operation in Kashmir was curtailed and its staff transferred elsewhere. 

·         Out of nowhere, Musharraf ordered a ceasefire along the LOC (India replied in Kind) 

·         All the minor issues which have been pending for a while – train, bus, air link, trade etc. were to be restored to where they were two years back. 

·         Musharraf offered to sidetrack the plebiscite issue on Kashmir. 

·         All the mullahs were told to control their anti American propaganda Etc. etc. 

With the above Musharraf is pretending to be a statesman, a Kamal Atta Turk, who is willing to discuss and settle all outstanding issues with India. To please the Americans, he ordered further turning the heat a notch on Al Qaeda. He also ordered its intelligence services to cut ties, if any, with Taliban. At the home front a few unwilling generals were transferred from the critical jobs and a settlement with the religious parties in the Parliament was reached in which he will shed the uniform, but will become the Commander – in – Chief and the President of Pakistan. A job Field Marshall Ayub Khan had until his fall after 1965 War with India. Cleverly with this move, he retains the control over the army and civilian administration. 

All this happened only after an open statement by the Iranians that Pakistani engineers have been providing them hardware and technical help to build an Atom Bomb for the last 15 years. To upstage this disclosure, Musharraf immediately claimed, that the rogue engineers and scientists have done all this in the past without the knowledge of Pakistani government and the army. He further claimed that this help has now been ended.   

General Musharraf’s statements are partially true. 

Pakistani nuclear scientists and engineer, since they started working actively on the Atom Bomb in 1978, have been under very strict military surveillance. They could not step out of the security circle as they feared India/Israel may assassinate them. The Chairman of the Pakistani Atomic Energy and Director Nuclear Laboratory at Kahuta, who is one of the engineer named by the Iranians, does not report to the civilian authorities. He reports directly to the military general staff. A senior officer of the rank of a Brigadier acts as his personal bodyguard. Hence it is difficult to assume that the Pakistani army did not know about what the scientist in question was doing. Moreover he gave a prototype of the gas centrifuge to the Iranians, hence this could only have happened with the full knowledge of the army. I do agree that Musharraf at that time, a Brigadier, did not know all the activities at the general staff.  Later, Brigadier Musharraf moved to become a Major General, Lt. General and then a full General - how could he avoid not knowing Pakistani Army and the Iranian nexus? It is hard to believe. 

I do believe that the civilian prime ministers which followed after 1989 elections, did not know about this transfer of nuclear technology. One cannot be sure about it.  

Hence all that sweetness, Which General Musharraf is displaying today is born out of lost face in front of the Americans.  

Lucky for General Musharraf, an assassination attempt was made on his life immediately after the Iranian disclosure. This brought in a huge wave of sympathy from the Americans. The second attempt two weeks later set the alarm bells ringing in Washington about the soundness of the American policy in Pakistan. 

Not only the American are worried about losing their best friend in Pakistan, they are also worried about a Jehadi general succeeding Musharraf and letting the Al Qaeda and Osma Bin Laaden on the nuclear secrets. 

Hence where do we in the west stand today: 

1. General Musharraf is a marked man. Sooner or later an assassin will get to him.

2. American policy in Pakistan will fall flat on its face as soon as Musharraf is not there.

3. Nuclear weapons in Pakistan could pass into the unsafe hands of a Jehadi general.

4. Al Qaeda is sure to get hold of enough Uranium and technology to build a crude bomb, sooner than later.

5. War with India is a certainty, as the new regime will shore up support for itself by starting a war.

6. Taliban may return to Afghanistan and start terror network all over again.

7. Iranians will make the full disclosure about their nuclear assets and put their nuclear ambitions on hold.

8. Libya has already turned around after 25 years of its quest for peace with honor with the West (It may have recently achieved it with full disclosure of its nuclear assets).

9. Libya is about to disclose that they transferred $1billion to Pakistan in 1978 and stole enough Uranium ore from Chad for Pakistan to build a bomb.

It is just a matter of time that the North Koreans will make a similar disclosure that they got their nuclear technology from Pakistan. The irony is that the Iranians got it in 1984-85, the North Koreans got it in 1998-99. To the latter will be hard for Musharraf to deny or blame a few individual scientists. In this case army was eager to get missile technology from the North Koreans, hence traded a nuclear centrifuge for missiles. 

In conclusion, one can say only one thing with great certainty that Americans have been sweet talked into believing Pakistani Army and its ideals. In fact it is a rogue army, lead by rogue generals and helped by rogue scientists and nuclear engineers. America watch out. 

Hari Sud

(The author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc. and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A graduate of Punjab University and University of Missouri; Rolla, the author is a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager)