By: Arindam Banerji
arindam_banerji@yahoo.com
December 14, 2003

I have been troubled by some aspects of the current thaw between India and Pakistan, for a while. So, I wrote the article on "Did India just blink?" - included below. Specifically, I have been somewhat disturbed by:

1. What kinda final solution??

Now that multiple senior people on both sides have talked about a final solution - there has to be a final solution description that has been discussed. Going by statements by Mufti, Jamali, and all the American interlocutors that have come by in the recent weeks two things are have been repeated multiple times - "LOC is not a basis for a solution" and "no solution can humiliate Pakistan" - interpret them as you want to, but my personal interpretation is that this means, Pakistan keeps what it has, Kashmir valley gets a "new status" and the Baghliar effort immediately stops.

2. Preparing the Indian people for a compromise

The Indian population is being prepared by a lot of this good will farce, to accept a major compromise. We see little of this happening on the other side - Pakistani public have been informed that status quo is not acceptable, India will open up its trade market etc. The Indian population as usual has gone gaa-gaa and is ready to forgive the ongoing killings – 90 people dead since truce (28 were civilians) - but most dailies are not reporting this news on their front-pages anymore.

3. Creeping secession of J&K

The slow but steady separation of J&K has begun - even if the current GOI does not understand this. We now have a J&K CM who has openly supported "Azaadi" as recently as the last elections. More autonomy, Pakistanization/Islamization and a political leadership in J&K which has been culled of pro-India elements - is about to create walls between India and J&K that will be irreversible.

I have heard from some sources and now Jang is also reporting, that India will agree to the Iran-India pipeline thru Pakistan, either at SAARC or immediately thereafter. While, I`m perfectly satisfied with how the PMO has handled other foreign policy issues - their current direction in Kashmir is worrisome.

Did India just blink?
http://saag.org/papers9/paper857.html 

Arindam Banerji